Categorization Yellow Vs Blue; Parliamentary seats past performance.

[Sunny@CBN 232]

I have done some analysis on performance of TDP in the 25 parliamentary constituencies between 1984-2019. Basically i tried to categorize the seats based on past performance like they do in the US. (Red for Republicans and blue for democrats). Here yellow is for TDP and Blue for YCP. I included seats won by TDP allies in TDP's kitty because these allies (BJP) don't really have the strength to win without TDP.

I marked yellow if TDP won more than 7/10 times. I marked blue if INC+YCP won more than 7/10 times and pink for the remaining seats i.e swing seats.

Finally what i found out is that TDP has only two yellow out of 25 seats.  (Chittoor and Srikakulam). YCP/INC has 9 blues (Araku, Ongole, Nandyal, Kurnool, Anantapur, Kadapa, Nellore, Tirupati, Rajampeta). The other 14 seats are basically swing seats. I was tempted to include Vizianagaram & Narsapuram in yellow by making a separate category - light yellow. Because in 1991 Ananda Gajapati Raju contested for INC and won the election.  RRR himself told that TDP would have won had he stayed in TDP. So for both these constituencies TDP would have reached 7 seats.

Note: This analysis is only based on data for past ten elections. I was also surprised that Vijayawada is a swing seat but that is how the data is.

[Gunner 3,360]

2009 constituency delimitation tho chala changes jarigayi ga…

2009 ki mundu Guntur dt lo 4 LS constituency lu vundevi… Guntur/Tenali/Bapatla/N.peta…. Delimitation lo Tenali LS consistuency poindi… Bapatla lo vunde Ponnur, Tenali lo vunde Tenali assembly constituency ni techi Guntur lo kaliparu, vemuru ni Bapatla lo kaliparu… Guntur lo vunde Chilakaluri Peta ni N.peta lo kaliparu..

[fan no 1 200]

VJA anytime possible YCP, Nani Valle gelustunnam...BC vote etu swing ayite atu. 

Upendra and Lagadapati valla congress bagane gelisindi.

[TDP_Abhimani 278]

Good Analysis brother ...Parliamentary seats ke central party ke eppudu advantage....example 1998 lo congress won more seats compared to TDP,whc is in power.....2009 lo congress ke 30 plus seats vachaay though congress barely made in assembly seats!!!

[MSDTarak 608]

1 hour ago, Sunny@CBN said:

I have done some analysis on performance of TDP in the 25 parliamentary constituencies between 1984-2019. Basically i tried to categorize the seats based on past performance like they do in the US. (Red for Republicans and blue for democrats). Here yellow is for TDP and Blue for YCP. I included seats won by TDP allies in TDP's kitty because these allies (BJP) don't really have the strength to win without TDP.

I marked yellow if TDP won more than 7/10 times. I marked blue if INC+YCP won more than 7/10 times and pink for the remaining seats i.e swing seats.

Finally what i found out is that TDP has only two yellow out of 25 seats.  (Chittoor and Srikakulam). YCP/INC has 9 blues (Araku, Ongole, Nandyal, Kurnool, Anantapur, Kadapa, Nellore, Tirupati, Rajampeta). The other 14 seats are basically swing seats. I was tempted to include Vizianagaram & Narsapuram in yellow by making a separate category - light yellow. Because in 1991 Ananda Gajapati Raju contested for INC and won the election.  RRR himself told that TDP would have won had he stayed in TDP. So for both these constituencies TDP would have reached 7 seats.

Note: This analysis is only based on data for past ten elections. I was also surprised that Vijayawada is a swing seat but that is how the data is.

Hindupur lo 1984 nunchi 2014 varaku tdp ee , only last time YCP as MP....Please re check

[kiran319 66]

Hindupur 1989,1991,1998,2004 INC ne gelichindi.

[Sunny@CBN 232]

52 minutes ago, MSDTarak said:

Hindupur lo 1984 nunchi 2014 varaku tdp ee , only last time YCP as MP....Please re check

Kadu brother. Hindupur assembly epudu odipoledu. Parliament seat odipoyamu chala times. You can verify in wiki 

[KING007 1,325]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindupur_(Lok_Sabha_constituency)

[Sunny@CBN 232]

1 hour ago, fan no 1 said:

VJA anytime possible YCP, Nani Valle gelustunnam...BC vote etu swing ayite atu. 

Upendra and Lagadapati valla congress bagane gelisindi.

True. If YCP gets a strong candidate it is not easy. But capital change effect undochu next election.

[Sunny@CBN 232]

2 hours ago, Gunner said:

2009 constituency delimitation tho chala changes jarigayi ga…

2009 ki mundu Guntur dt lo 4 LS constituency lu vundevi… Guntur/Tenali/Bapatla/N.peta…. Delimitation lo Tenali LS consistuency poindi… Bapatla lo vunde Ponnur, Tenali lo vunde Tenali assembly constituency ni techi Guntur lo kaliparu, vemuru ni Bapatla lo kaliparu… Guntur lo vunde Chilakaluri Peta ni N.peta lo kaliparu..

It is better to do assembly constituency wise analysis for more accuracy. Time chala padatadi  maybe one whole day for this. There are a lot of issues after delimitation. But this is only for rough idea.

[MSDTarak 608]

21 minutes ago, Sunny@CBN said:

Kadu brother. Hindupur assembly epudu odipoledu. Parliament seat odipoyamu chala times. You can verify in wiki 

Sorry my bad

[Sunny@CBN 232]

One more observation TDP ki 1989- 2 seats (NTR time also) 2004 & 2009 4 seats vachayi.

Congress ki 1984(3 seats) 1999 lo 2 seats tappa antha worst situation ki epudu vellaledu. So manaki swing seats complete ga favour cheste tappa gelavalemu. 

1991, 1996, 1998 lo we won good numbers but congress valla blue seats kakunda konni swing seats capture chesi they could win majority.

Aa blue seats lo manam ela gelavali anedi konchem ground work cheyali. Anantapur is one such blue seat which we could win in 2014. Case study ga teeskuni maybe we should implement similar strategies.

 

 

 

 

 

[kalyan babu 174]

2 hours ago, Gunner said:

2009 constituency delimitation tho chala changes jarigayi ga…

2009 ki mundu Guntur dt lo 4 LS constituency lu vundevi… Guntur/Tenali/Bapatla/N.peta…. Delimitation lo Tenali LS consistuency poindi… Bapatla lo vunde Ponnur, Tenali lo vunde Tenali assembly constituency ni techi Guntur lo kaliparu, vemuru ni Bapatla lo kaliparu… Guntur lo vunde Chilakaluri Peta ni N.peta lo kaliparu..

Credit goes to Nallari sir, ishtam vachinatlu divide chesi padesadu. TPTY AND NELLORE KALPISADU

CHITTOR AND KADAPA NI KALPISADU ILANTI ANI MUTYALU ENO

[sskmaestro 4,630]

2006 lo delimitation killed TDP….. if we can gain power in 2024…. We have a chance to gain back…. There will be delimitation in 2026.  

[balu77 46]

3 hours ago, fan no 1 said:

VJA anytime possible YCP, Nani Valle gelustunnam...BC vote etu swing ayite atu. 

Upendra and Lagadapati valla congress bagane gelisindi.

Anta blind ga any time posible ani cheppa vaddu and total credit Nani ki ivvavalisina nesasity ledu 2009 lo kooda tough fight ichhindi chala low margin to lost ayyamu.just 13k majority for congress 2009 lo loaksatta ki padina votes nearly 21k alage 1998 lo we lost that seat just 24k votes because 1998 lo TDLP ento konta strong gane undi 1998 lo TDLP ki vija lo 1 lakh above votes poll ayyayi.alage 1998 lo Rajamundry lo BJP gelavadaniki kooda TDLP ne reason because TDLP alianse with BJP sitting seat ane vanka to 1999 lo Rajamu.fry seat BJP vallu dobbesaru

[balu77 46]

1996 and 1998 results consider cheyalemu appatlo mana cader and nayukulu chala mandiTDLP lo unnaru mana vote bank nearly 25%TDLP ki poyindi

[Rajakeeyam 672]

Seema area Inc/ycp consistent performance only other regions swing anamata

[Sunny@CBN 232]

53 minutes ago, Rajakeeyam said:

Seema area Inc/ycp consistent performance only other regions swing anamata

Yes. Assembly wise kuda chudali ela undo.

[rama123 470]

Ycp ayite easy telustadi, tdp ayite kashtapdite telustadi by all means...ayina every election will have different issues

[rama123 470]

Chittoor won only on kuppam majority,that's not the case now ,so that's also blue.

 

[Sunny@CBN 232]

8 hours ago, rama123 said:

Chittoor won only on kuppam majority,that's not the case now ,so that's also blue.

 

Ala em ledu. Na expectation prakaram next time Kuppam majority perugutadi, Palamaneru and Nagari win avutam, remaining seats lo valla majorities kuda taggutayi to a few thousands. Gelavachu. Maree Kadapa, Kurnool type lo em kadu.

[adithya369 620]

21 hours ago, sskmaestro said:

2006 lo delimitation killed TDP….. if we can gain power in 2024…. We have a chance to gain back…. There will be delimitation in 2026.  

Delimitation baaga debbesindi

[Raaz@NBK 6,198]

10 minutes ago, adithya369 said:

Delimitation baaga debbesindi

2026 lo vundhi.. Appatiki TDP power loki ravali ela ayina Sare.. 

[adithya369 620]

2 hours ago, Raaz@NBK said:

2026 lo vundhi.. Appatiki TDP power loki ravali ela ayina Sare.. 

Manam power lo ki raavalante, Mission Pakodi start cheyyaali

[Sunny@CBN 232]

Enti bro ee pakodi mission?

[adithya369 620]

2 hours ago, Sunny@CBN said:

Enti bro ee pakodi mission?

Pakodi ni PMO nundi tharimesi   T kottu ku pampadame 

Idi jarigithe, manam 50% gelichinatle