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Just How Big Could India’s True Covid Toll Be?


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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/05/25/world/asia/india-covid-death-estimates.html

Source: The New York Times.

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                                                                                         How we estimated death rates

Many of the infection fatality rate estimates that have been published were calculated before the most recent wave in India, so it could be that the overall I.F.R. is actually higher after accounting for the most recent wave. The rate also varies greatly by age: Typically, the measure rises for older populations. India’s population skews young — its median age is around 29 — which could mean I.F.R. is lower there than in countries with larger older populations.

There is also extreme variability within the country in terms of both infection fatality rate and seroprevalence. In addition to the three national serosurveys, there have been more than 60 serosurveys done at the local and regional level, according to SeroTracker, a website that compiles serosurvey data from around the world.

In a paper examining infection rates using serosurvey data from three locations in India, Dr. Paul Novosad, an associate professor of economics at Dartmouth College, found huge variability depending on the population being sampled. “We found that age-specific I.F.R. among returning lockdown migrants was much higher than in richer countries,” he said. “In contrast, we found a much lower first-wave I.F.R. than richer countries in the Southern states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.”

In a country as large as India, even a small fluctuation in infection fatality rates could mean a difference of hundreds of thousands of deaths, as seen in the estimates above.

While estimates can vary over time and from region to region, one thing is clear beyond all doubt: The pandemic in India is much larger than the official figures suggest.

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batikunnappudu Movie ticket kosam vote veyyatam kosam line lo nilabadda citizens.... chanipoyaaka..... paaade meeda kooda gantala tarabadi queue lo nulchunnaru..... nobody would have dreamt that scene. Inta kanna worst case emuntundi? we should pick that worst case number...

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Chandragiri constitution lo oka palletooriloo jarigindi cheptha.

Covid-19 deaths ni ooriloki raabivvadam ledhu oori peddalu. Smashanam lo 3/4 days wait cheyalanta. Inka evvariki cheppukoleka dead bodies ni midnight 11 or 12 ki 2 members ettukoni velli polaallo poodchesthunnaru anta. 

ilanti ghoralu enno.

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6 minutes ago, Jaitra said:

Minimum 50 L lesi untaaru ippati daaka

4-5 lakhs okka AP lo ne unataru easy ga. Naku telisina family circles lo ne padi mandi daka poyaru. Maa colleagues lo 4 people lost their fathers. Almost every other day I am hearing some death news be it in family circles or friends families or office colleagues and their families. Inka infected ithe actual numbers are beyond imagination. 

Antha ipoyaka lockdown pettinchi street vendors meeda , chillara kotla meeda pratapam choopistunnay govt’s 🤦🏻‍♂️

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7 minutes ago, Royal Nandamuri said:

4-5 lakhs okka AP lo ne unataru easy ga. Naku telisina family circles lo ne padi mandi daka poyaru. Maa colleagues lo 4 people lost their fathers. Almost every other day I am hearing some death news be it in family circles or friends families or office colleagues and their families. Inka infected ithe actual numbers are beyond imagination. 

Antha ipoyaka lockdown pettinchi street vendors meeda , chillara kotla meeda pratapam choopistunnay govt’s 🤦🏻‍♂️

Yes

Each db member may have lost atleast one person they might have known

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A month back when I was infected(5 other family members too) vijaya super speciality hospital ki velthe 9 AM ki OP lo na token no 60. Doctor daggaraki vellesariki waiting hall motham nindipoyindi , doctor hardly spent 20 seconds in asking for symptoms and asked to get CT scan done, CT scan daggaraki velthe na token no 89 (yes I still remember that number as I thought I would die there waiting for my turn ) . CT scan ayyaka malli doctor daggara queue with even more numbers. 

Doctor evo 2 injections rasadu, avi daily twice cheyinchukovataniki hospital lo staff ni adigithe  intiki vachi chestanu 1000rs per injection annadu ante 4k per day(deepam unnappudu illu chakkabettukunna mahanubhavudu). Inti daggara chinna clinic undi akkada cheyinchukundam ani velthe akkada kooda full of covid patients , vallu memu busy kudaradu annaru elago request chesi injections cheyinchukunnanu. Ila ekkadiki vellina hospitals anni overload aipoyayi. Vijayawada lanti city lo anni hospitals ki access untene intha trouble padalsi vachindi inka villages lo unnavallu hospital access leni vallu anthe sangathulu

Situation intha ghoramga unte govt’s emo face saving kosam actual numbers ni tokki pedutunnaru. Prajalu vallaki just numbers ye na ani talchukunte pattaleni kopam vastundi. 

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1 hour ago, Royal Nandamuri said:

A month back when I was infected(5 other family members too) vijaya super speciality hospital ki velthe 9 AM ki OP lo na token no 60. Doctor daggaraki vellesariki waiting hall motham nindipoyindi , doctor hardly spent 20 seconds in asking for symptoms and asked to get CT scan done, CT scan daggaraki velthe na token no 89 (yes I still remember that number as I thought I would die there waiting for my turn ) . CT scan ayyaka malli doctor daggara queue with even more numbers. 

Doctor evo 2 injections rasadu, avi daily twice cheyinchukovataniki hospital lo staff ni adigithe  intiki vachi chestanu 1000rs per injection annadu ante 4k per day(deepam unnappudu illu chakkabettukunna mahanubhavudu). Inti daggara chinna clinic undi akkada cheyinchukundam ani velthe akkada kooda full of covid patients , vallu memu busy kudaradu annaru elago request chesi injections cheyinchukunnanu. Ila ekkadiki vellina hospitals anni overload aipoyayi. Vijayawada lanti city lo anni hospitals ki access untene intha trouble padalsi vachindi inka villages lo unnavallu hospital access leni vallu anthe sangathulu

Situation intha ghoramga unte govt’s emo face saving kosam actual numbers ni tokki pedutunnaru. Prajalu vallaki just numbers ye na ani talchukunte pattaleni kopam vastundi. 

What was the injection bro? Just curious....

What heart breaking troubles u went through...

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there is an anology that an average 30K people will die naturally in a normal day for our population.. and no rush at any funeral.. for 4K additional covid deaths, do you think there will be such mad rush, that too for a country like us, where most are burnt??

many covid deaths are recorded as heart/lung failures.. for some cases, rtpcr reports itself did not come in time.. 

god knows real count!! Amen!!

 

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57 minutes ago, Jaitra said:

What was the injection bro? Just curious....

What heart breaking troubles u went through...

Ee 2 injections 1 week patu daily twice vadanu. Baga pani chesayi

Methyleprednisolone sodium succinate(Mepresso-i 125 mg)

Piperacillin and Tazobactam Injection IP 4.5 g (Durataz 4.5 g)

 

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3 hours ago, Royal Nandamuri said:

4-5 lakhs okka AP lo ne unataru easy ga. Naku telisina family circles lo ne padi mandi daka poyaru. Maa colleagues lo 4 people lost their fathers. Almost every other day I am hearing some death news be it in family circles or friends families or office colleagues and their families. Inka infected ithe actual numbers are beyond imagination. 

Antha ipoyaka lockdown pettinchi street vendors meeda , chillara kotla meeda pratapam choopistunnay govt’s 🤦🏻‍♂️

exactly, this is my list in last 30 days my close friend (33Yrs), neighbour (friend), another friend's BIL and FIL, another friend's Mother, another friend's father  

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37 minutes ago, Royal Nandamuri said:

Ee 2 injections 1 week patu daily twice vadanu. Baga pani chesayi

Methyleprednisolone sodium succinate(Mepresso-i 125 mg)

Piperacillin and Tazobactam Injection IP 4.5 g (Durataz 4.5 g)

 

Steroid and strong antibiotics kummaru meeku

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1 hour ago, Jaitra said:

Steroid and strong antibiotics kummaru meeku

Tazobactum manushulaki vadataara doc? 😯

Last year cattle lumpy skin disease ki govt doctors use chesevaaru (Intazo Cef)

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Naaku Maa parents ki telisina valla count 10 members last 2months lo ....vallalo naa life lo nenu chusi matladina vallu 5 members vunnaru age between 78 yrs to 32 years that 78 year old is my grandfather's elder sister !!

Details loki velthe depressive ga vintadani veyyatledu 🙏🙏

 

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19 hours ago, Chaitu87 said:

@Royal Nandamuri Nice to know that you are doing good bro. Anything you are doing to offset the effects of those severe antibiotics and steroids? Like post covid precautions?

 

Doctor steroid tablets dosage gradual ga tagginchukuntu vachadu. Food baga teesukomani suggest chesadu, steriod effect or post covid effect oo kani chala weak ga anipinchedi atleast for 3 weeks, entha weak ante na 4 month old baby ni 5 mins kooda lift cheyyalekapoyevadini . Baga aakali kooda vesedi . Had lots of protein food (chicken, egg, paneer etc ) and dry fruits. Gradual ga weakness poyi normalcy ki vachanu.

One other issue I faced again not sure if it is post covid effect or due to medicines I used, shoulders and back motham red spots vachayi, doctor ni adigithe Avil 10 days twice vesukomannadu+ supplivit(multi vitamin) tablets. slow ga potunnayi avi kooda . For every visit CRP test cheyistunnanu. Next monday malli visit undi. I hope that will be my last visit for Covid treatment. I feel completely normal now.

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2 hours ago, Royal Nandamuri said:

Doctor steroid tablets dosage gradual ga tagginchukuntu vachadu. Food baga teesukomani suggest chesadu, steriod effect or post covid effect oo kani chala weak ga anipinchedi atleast for 3 weeks, entha weak ante na 4 month old baby ni 5 mins kooda lift cheyyalekapoyevadini . Baga aakali kooda vesedi . Had lots of protein food (chicken, egg, paneer etc ) and dry fruits. Gradual ga weakness poyi normalcy ki vachanu.

One other issue I faced again not sure if it is post covid effect or due to medicines I used, shoulders and back motham red spots vachayi, doctor ni adigithe Avil 10 days twice vesukomannadu+ supplivit(multi vitamin) tablets. slow ga potunnayi avi kooda . For every visit CRP test cheyistunnanu. Next monday malli visit undi. I hope that will be my last visit for Covid treatment. I feel completely normal now.

Ee post covid or long covid evariki vastondi and enduku vastondi ani evaru cheppalekapotunnaru. Same meeru cheppina symptoms eh I heard from two or three people. One month ayina taggaledu. Meeku inka CRP levels high vuntunnaya? I didn't know you should get tested for CRP even after Covid ani. But good to know you are normal now.

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54 minutes ago, Chaitu87 said:

Ee post covid or long covid evariki vastondi and enduku vastondi ani evaru cheppalekapotunnaru. Same meeru cheppina symptoms eh I heard from two or three people. One month ayina taggaledu. Meeku inka CRP levels high vuntunnaya? I didn't know you should get tested for CRP even after Covid ani. But good to know you are normal now.

CRP level  oka COVID positive tested date nunchi 15 days tarvata kooda fluctuate ayindi naku anduke doctor every 2 weeks ki okasari test rasadu, past 3 weeks lo normal gane undi dosage tagginchaka kooda, ee week covid medicines complete ga stop chesa anduke one last time chooddam ani anukunta .

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41 minutes ago, Royal Nandamuri said:

CRP level  oka COVID positive tested date nunchi 15 days tarvata kooda fluctuate ayindi naku anduke doctor every 2 weeks ki okasari test rasadu, past 3 weeks lo normal gane undi dosage tagginchaka kooda, ee week covid medicines complete ga stop chesa anduke one last time chooddam ani anukunta .

As it stands, inka andaru fitness, healthy food and immunity meeda concentrate cheyadame future lo. Take care bro 👍

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