NTR_TDP_NTR Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 MY PREDICTIONS FOR 2014 ELECTIONS IN SEEMANDHRA BASED ON THE CASTE EQUATIONS. SL.NO CASTE PERCENTAGE TDP+BJP YSRCP+CPM+CPI OTHERS(INC+JSKA+LSP) 1 BACKWARD CLASSES 39.8 27.7 9.9 1.9 2 MALA 11.9 1.8 9.6 0.5 3 KAPU 12.9 9.7 2.5 0.7 4 REDDY 5.1 0.9 3.9 0.3 5 MADIGA 6.6 3.9 2.3 0.4 6 KAMMA 7.6 6.8 0.3 0.5 7 MUSLIM 3.4 0.4 2.9 0.1 8 SCHEDULED TRIBES 2.9 0.9 1.6 0.4 9 VELMA 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 10 CHRISTIANS 2.6 0.2 2.3 0.1 11 KOMATI 2.9 2.1 0.3 0.5 12 BRAHMIN 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.9 13 KSHATRIYA 1.8 1.4 0.2 0.2 TOTAL 100% 56.9% 36.5% 6.6% As PER MY CALCULATION'S ASSUMING THE CASTE VOTING PATTERN PERCENTAGE THE BELOW COULD BE THE RESULTS +/- 5 PERCENT IN SEATS AS PER MY OBSERVATION'S MADE IN THE MONTH OF JANUARY TO FEBRUARY .......... CONSIDERING THE DIVIDEND'S VOTER COUNT WHICH WOULD BE MINIMIZED(TDP+BJP) THAT WOULD INDIRECTLY REFLECT YSRCP IN TERMS OF SEATS IRRESPECTIVE OF VOTING PERCENTAGE THEY OBTAIN.......CONSIDERING 10 PERCENT LOSS IN THE TALLY OF SEATS FOR YSRCP AND 10 PERCENT GAIN IN THE TALLY OF SEATS FOR TDP HENCE THE BELOW SEAT SHARE PROJECTION................ SEATS TDP+BJP YSRCP+CPM+CPI OTHERS(INC+JSKA+LSP) M.L.A TOTAL 175 109-111 56-59 10-12 M.P TOTAL 25 17-19 5-7 0-1 CONSIDERING THE PRESENT CONDITIONS SINCE FEBRUARY END TO TILL DATE ACROSS THE SEEMANDHRA REGION WHICH WERE RAPIDLY CHANGING POSITIVELY FOR TDP AND ALSO CONSIDERING THE UP-SPRINGING POSITIVE WAVE FACTOR'S AND MY ASSUMPTION IN THE FOLLOWING VOTING TREND BASED ON CASTE EQUITATION'S IN THIS PERIOD OF 3-4 WEEKS THERE IS AN SWING ABOUT 4-5 PERCENT IN FAVOR OF TDP AND IF TDP CONTINUES IN THE SAME MOMENTUM IN THE COMING NEXT 51 DAYS BY THE TIME OF ELECTION'S THERE COULD BE AN ADDITIONAL SWING ABOUT ANOTHER 2-3 PERCENT AND IF EVERY THING GOES THE SAME FROM TODAY TILL ELECTION'S THE BELOW FIGURES ARE MY ASSUMPTION'S AT THE FINAL BATTLE ......... SEATS TDP+BJP YSRCP+CPM+CPI OTHERS(INC+JSKA+LSP) M.L.A TOTAL 175 142-147 23-28 5-7 M.P TOTAL 25 22-23 2-3 0 ***** the above calculation's for the month's Jan and Feb include TDP+BJP was taken into consideration and i considered the above alliance as per my sources conformed the alliance in the month of Nov ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTR_TDP_NTR Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Share your thought's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naresh_NTR Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 bookmarked.. lets discuss after elections... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
srinivasulu pokuri Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Kamma ysrcp ki 2% vote padathayi bro.. Ma prakasam lo bagane unnaru kammas in ysrcp and in guntur too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTR_TDP_NTR Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 bookmarked.. lets discuss after elections... yes bro always ready for an health discussion .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTR_TDP_NTR Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 JS ni enduku add chesaru ? at least BJP is fine why JS ? deleted it done.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andhra Dada Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Kamma ysrcp ki 2% vote padathayi bro.. Ma prakasam lo bagane unnaru kammas in ysrcp and in guntur too.. konni villages lo K batch traditional gaa Congress voters...ippudu YSRC...but vaallu chaala minimum % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andhra Dada Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 combo lu kakunda individual gaa este inko 5% difference ravatchemo voting % lo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adithya369 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 paina list lo KOMATI & BRAHMIN votes lo manaki vache % meeda doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andhra Dada Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 paina list lo KOMATI & BRAHMIN votes lo manaki vache % meeda doubt BJP + TDP annaruga...andukani ekkuva % vesaaru...already chaala chotla Komati internal meetings lo TDP ki support ivvali ani theermaninchaaru ee elections varaku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTR_TDP_NTR Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Kamma ysrcp ki 2% vote padathayi bro.. Ma prakasam lo bagane unnaru kammas in ysrcp and in guntur too.. 70-80 percent kaam's eppudu TDP ney brother only in 1983 loney 90 percent above TDP ki vesaruu and iam expecting this section will repeat 1983 if not 1994 minimum isari matuku......85-90 ayithey for sure ani nenu anukuntuna ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclist Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Share your thought's oka mp segment ki 50 Crs. lekkana 20 MP segments loo 1000 Cr jaffa lu karchu pedithee maaree janam mana AP prajaneekam brother u should consider that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTR_TDP_NTR Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 paina list lo KOMATI & BRAHMIN votes lo manaki vache % meeda doubt brahmin and komati lo anti vote ekkuva gha unnadhi towards YSRCP and komati section's lo maximum already turn out ayyaru brother to TDP and repu jaragaboyee municipal election's lo vati talukha reflection's manaki kanipisthayee and BJP tho potthu valla manaki e 2 section voting perugudhee and inko pakka INC weak aypovadham manaki advantage..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTR_TDP_NTR Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 oka mp segment ki 50 Crs. lekkana 20 MP segments loo 1000 Cr jaffa lu karchu pedithee maaree janam mana AP prajaneekam brother u should consider that too idhe general election kadha bro ..... meeru annatu by-election ayithey veru......and TDP ippudu karchubettanika YSRCP kanna emi venuku adugu lo ledhu kadha brother......we r in a position equally valla lagha karchupetttaniki more ....... meru tondarlo chudandii e jagan gadu money bayataki tiyakunda candiates ney karchu petta manthey vellu savings alochistaruu bayata wave and swing chusi.......jaffa gadu money teyalsindhey ...... naku telisi gatha 2-3 months ga mana party ki vasthunna NRI funding chalu brother to handle this money issue.....almost major capitalist section in our state antha ippudu mana pakka cheruthunaru manaki adhee pedha problem kadhu ley brother...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclist Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 idhe general election kadha bro ..... meeru annatu by-election ayithey veru......and TDP ippudu karchubettanika YSRCP kanna emi venuku adugu lo ledhu kadha brother......we r in a position equally valla lagha karchupetttaniki more ....... meru tondarlo chudandii e jagan gadu money bayataki tiyakunda candiates ney karchu petta manthey vellu savings alochistaruu bayata wave and swing chusi.......jaffa gadu money teyalsindhey ...... naku telisi gatha 2-3 months ga mana party ki vasthunna NRI funding chalu brother to handle this money issue.....almost major capitalist section in our state antha ippudu mana pakka cheruthunaru manaki adhee pedha problem kadhu ley brother...... ikkada okkoo sari mana vaallu peenaasi buddulu chooputhaaru adhee problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godavari Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Politics dnt follow Mathematics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclist Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 idhe general election kadha bro ..... meeru annatu by-election ayithey veru......and TDP ippudu karchubettanika YSRCP kanna emi venuku adugu lo ledhu kadha brother......we r in a position equally valla lagha karchupetttaniki more ....... meru tondarlo chudandii e jagan gadu money bayataki tiyakunda candiates ney karchu petta manthey vellu savings alochistaruu bayata wave and swing chusi.......jaffa gadu money teyalsindhey ...... naku telisi gatha 2-3 months ga mana party ki vasthunna NRI funding chalu brother to handle this money issue.....almost major capitalist section in our state antha ippudu mana pakka cheruthunaru manaki adhee pedha problem kadhu ley brother...... endukoo vaadi dabbulu baga irukkunnaayi bayataki raaleeni vidhamgaa antunnaaru dabbulu leekundaa vaadiki oopiri aadatam leedu antunnaaru jaffa lu andhukee neemoo minimum 1k members mandee maarbalam thoo janam choopinchee vaadi venta kadapa batch ravadam leedu ee madhya chittoor trip nundi observe cheesaa ikkada local gaa evaroo raakapooyeesariki theelipoothunnaadu kadapa to tirupathi daggara ayinaa akkadi ki koodaa janam raaleedu that to baga vunna karunakar gadu koodaa savings modaledutunnaadoo eemoo anipinchindhi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adithya369 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 BJP + TDP annaruga...andukani ekkuva % vesaaru...already chaala chotla Komati internal meetings lo TDP ki support ivvali ani theermaninchaaru ee elections varaku brahmin and komati lo anti vote ekkuva gha unnadhi towards YSRCP and komati section's lo maximum already turn out ayyaru brother to TDP and repu jaragaboyee municipal election's lo vati talukha reflection's manaki kanipisthayee and BJP tho potthu valla manaki e 2 section voting perugudhee and inko pakka INC weak aypovadham manaki advantage..... ide jarigithe, maa Kandukur & Ongole TDP ki 100% confirm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclist Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 sc la loo minimum naa exepectations prakaram champinaa cheyyi vadalaru oo 20% ee debba ysrcp ki baga padavacchu anipistondi ballot box loo cheyyi kanipisthee ee 20% bokkee ysrcp ki v should consider this too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbk@myHeart Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 kammas lo meru close to 90% TDP ki ani esaaru ga.. idi aithe pakkaa wrong... 60% tdp ki padithe baagaa paddattu.... Nellore, Prakasam, Guntur lo almost equal ration lo untaay Ycp & tdp ki kamma votes... and BCs ovtes kooda manaki anni padav... Komati vaallavi koodaa 50-50 untaa ycp & tdp ki..... kapulu koodaa 60 and 40% ration lo padathay tdp & ycp ki.... overall gaa 45% reach aithe super annattu..... jaggadi ni 35% lopu kattadi cheyyagaligithe... 10 to 20% definite gaa congee, jsp, cpi/cmp, indipendents ki padathaay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAYAM_NANI Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 kammas antha percentage lo ippatidaka eppudu even in the time of NTR has never voted TDP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbk@myHeart Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 meru cheppina % (55) vasthe TDP+BJP ki 150 MLA and 23 MP seats vastaay.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTR_TDP_NTR Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 sc la loo minimum naa exepectations prakaram champinaa cheyyi vadalaru oo 20% ee debba ysrcp ki baga padavacchu anipistondi ballot box loo cheyyi kanipisthee ee 20% bokkee ysrcp ki v should consider this too yes brother ippudu we have considered all the possibilities about YSRCP ki favour ga ..... money lekha pothey vadu asalu inni rojulu show run chesey vadu kadhu and vadi dhagariki intiall ga vellina vallu antha maximum money kosamey and ippudu vadu velleney money pettamanthunthey vellu mellaga jump antunaruu.........results taruvathaa manamu paina cheppina vadi percentage kanni takkuvey untadhee ........yes a 20 percent kuda ippudu vadi kathaloney vedhamuu and election taruvatha chudhamu and endhukanthey jaffa gallu meru chepputhunna a 20 percent kuda makey ani fix ayaruuu....let them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiriti Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Good Guess.Hope it comes true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclist Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 yes brother ippudu we have considered all the possibilities about YSRCP ki favour ga ..... money lekha pothey vadu asalu inni rojulu show run chesey vadu kadhu and vadi dhagariki intiall ga vellina vallu antha maximum money kosamey and ippudu vadu velleney money pettamanthunthey vellu mellaga jump antunaruu.........results taruvathaa manamu paina cheppina vadi percentage kanni takkuvey untadhee ........yes a 20 percent kuda ippudu vadi kathaloney vedhamuu and election taruvatha chudhamu and endhukanthey jaffa gallu meru chepputhunna a 20 percent kuda makey ani fix ayaruuu....let them aa 20% thoo paatu ethical + educated loo nundi 10% paigaa tdp ki vastundhi every time maa booth loo choostunnaa ee sari chala mandi ni kalisaa vaallu koodaa adhee antunnaru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclist Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 OC la loo chaduvukoni voter list la & janabha list la loo vundi udyogaala nimmittamai bayata state loo vunna vaallu 25% paina vuntaaru chittoor / atp / nellore etc dis la loo only musali vaallu vuntaaru oorlaloo ilaa bayata vellina vaalla loo 10% koodaa families thoo vacchi vote veyyavu andhuloo kammas % thakkuva gaa vastaaru vote lu veyyadaaniki idhi vasthavam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTR_TDP_NTR Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 kammas lo meru close to 90% TDP ki ani esaaru ga.. idi aithe pakkaa wrong... 60% tdp ki padithe baagaa paddattu.... Nellore, Prakasam, Guntur lo almost equal ration lo untaay Ycp & tdp ki kamma votes... and BCs ovtes kooda manaki anni padav... Komati vaallavi koodaa 50-50 untaa ycp & tdp ki..... kapulu koodaa 60 and 40% ration lo padathay tdp & ycp ki.... overall gaa 45% reach aithe super annattu..... jaggadi ni 35% lopu kattadi cheyyagaligithe... 10 to 20% definite gaa congee, jsp, cpi/cmp, indipendents ki padathaay meeru cipinattu paina equations oka sari manamu revise chesey TDP nunchee tisesi and YCP ki kalputhey then TDP ki 8-9 percent voting thagalii and TDP would land around 48-49 percent and YCP should go around 40-41 percent and others around 9-10 percent........................... Coming to BC voter's major count itu manapakka balija's,setti balija's,yadava's,palleykaru,nayebrahmin's, padmasali and turpu kapu's velley around 85 percent BC population and remaining chala low number's lo unnaru............and BC voting is the base voting for TDP and beside's nenu kontha mandhee BC sodarlu tho matladinappudu e section's lo under current oka disscussion nadusthundhee regarding Modi .........after long time after devagouda malli manaki modi rupamlo BC primeminister candiate avakasamu vachindhee almost after 16 years aney disco baghaa jaruguthundhee and TDP+BJP alliance valley maximum or we can call the highest voting from these section's munupu ennadu TDP ki e section's nunchee ranivantey voting percentage isari definite ga vasthadii and i have considered 70 percent voting from these section's only and inka peruguvachuu........ Coming to kaapu's naku telisi veelu one sided voting maximum eppudu since 1983 and 70:30 maximum is the split and 60:40 ratio lo split unthey vallu antha mandhee MLA reprasentive's undaruu assembly lo anukuntunaa and isari valla section lo nenu inka ekkuva expect chesthunna Coming to vysa's isari jarighey polorisation veru untadhee and manamu okka sari observe chesthey e section loni sodarulu ekkuvuga urban section and past 10 year's ga inka ekkuvugha migration's jarigavi to town's ........ there is rivalry going on between them and Muslim's almost allover and town's ki vachey sariki muslim voting maximum YCp ki pothadhee and vysha voting maximum TDP+BJP ki vasthadhee and deni taluka results prior to general election manamu repu jargayapoyee municipal election's svasthangha chudachuu.........and BJP ki traditional voting mana pakka e section nunchee reasonalble ga baganey undhee......INC scene lo lekapovadham oka advantage to TDP+BJP coming to vysha and brahmin votes and nenu anukovatham vellu maximum TDP+BJP ki vestharuu and brahmin count konchem low ga undhachuu when compared with vysha's.............. coming to kamma's na information varaku ithey okka 1983 loney solid ga TDP ki vesaruu 90 percent and followed in 1984 malli tagindhee to 80 percent and 1994 lo 85 percent varaku vesaru 1999 lo 70 percent varaku vesaru and 2004 lo below 60 percent vesaru and 2009 lo around 70 percent vesaruu.....and e section lo cross voting ekkuva MLA eppudu average ga 65-70 percent gatha 3 election's ga and MP ki vachey sariki 10 percent taguthundhee...........starting 1983 TDP ki kaam's voting downfall avuthundhee and few places lo 50:50 undhee as u said.........nenu isari 1983 laganey untadhee voting anukuntuna if at all 1994 election madira ga ayina vunthadhee minimum anukuntunaa.............almost INC nunchee maximum e section leaders TDP vaipu vacharuu and coming to YCP manamu valla candiates list chusthey maximum 20 seats istunaruu chudandhi and regular pattern lo ayithey kanism vallu 30-35 seats allocate cheyali ...that itself indicates ground lo isari INC nunchee vadiki support chesey batch tagguthundhee and almost recchagottinathey and election's daggara padey kodhhi konchem galatluu kuda jaragavachu area ni batti akkada opposite section medha ............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTR_TDP_NTR Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 endukoo vaadi dabbulu baga irukkunnaayi bayataki raaleeni vidhamgaa antunnaaru dabbulu leekundaa vaadiki oopiri aadatam leedu antunnaaru jaffa lu andhukee neemoo minimum 1k members mandee maarbalam thoo janam choopinchee vaadi venta kadapa batch ravadam leedu ee madhya chittoor trip nundi observe cheesaa ikkada local gaa evaroo raakapooyeesariki theelipoothunnaadu kadapa to tirupathi daggara ayinaa akkadi ki koodaa janam raaleedu that to baga vunna karunakar gadu koodaa savings modaledutunnaadoo eemoo anipinchindhi dongalaki pedda donga emaina vadu dochukunnadhi panchutadu anukunthey .....vallaki jaffa gadu vallu dochukunadhee mundhu karchu pettu anntunantuu vundhee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbk@myHeart Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 meeru cipinattu paina equations oka sari manamu revise chesey TDP nunchee tisesi and YCP ki kalputhey then TDP ki 8-9 percent voting thagalii and TDP would land around 48-49 percent and YCP should go around 40-41 percent and others around 9-10 percent........................... Coming to BC voter's major count itu manapakka balija's,setti balija's,yadava's,palleykaru,nayebrahmin's, padmasali and turpu kapu's velley around 85 percent BC population and remaining chala low number's lo unnaru............and BC voting is the base voting for TDP and beside's nenu kontha mandhee BC sodarlu tho matladinappudu e section's lo under current oka disscussion nadusthundhee regarding Modi .........after long time after devagouda malli manaki modi rupamlo BC primeminister candiate avakasamu vachindhee almost after 16 years aney disco baghaa jaruguthundhee and TDP+BJP alliance valley maximum or we can call the highest voting from these section's munupu ennadu TDP ki e section's nunchee ranivantey voting percentage isari definite ga vasthadii and i have considered 70 percent voting from these section's only and inka peruguvachuu........ Coming to kaapu's naku telisi veelu one sided voting maximum eppudu since 1983 and 70:30 maximum is the split and 60:40 ratio lo split unthey vallu antha mandhee MLA reprasentive's undaruu assembly lo anukuntunaa and isari valla section lo nenu inka ekkuva expect chesthunna Coming to vysa's isari jarighey polorisation veru untadhee and manamu okka sari observe chesthey e section loni sodarulu ekkuvuga urban section and past 10 year's ga inka ekkuvugha migration's jarigavi to town's ........ there is rivalry going on between them and Muslim's almost allover and town's ki vachey sariki muslim voting maximum YCp ki pothadhee and vysha voting maximum TDP+BJP ki vasthadhee and deni taluka results prior to general election manamu repu jargayapoyee municipal election's svasthangha chudachuu.........and BJP ki traditional voting mana pakka e section nunchee reasonalble ga baganey undhee......INC scene lo lekapovadham oka advantage to TDP+BJP coming to vysha and brahmin votes and nenu anukovatham vellu maximum TDP+BJP ki vestharuu and brahmin count konchem low ga undhachuu when compared with vysha's.............. coming to kamma's na information varaku ithey okka 1983 loney solid ga TDP ki vesaruu 90 percent and followed in 1984 malli tagindhee to 80 percent and 1994 lo 85 percent varaku vesaru 1999 lo 70 percent varaku vesaru and 2004 lo below 60 percent vesaru and 2009 lo around 70 percent vesaruu.....and e section lo cross voting ekkuva MLA eppudu average ga 65-70 percent gatha 3 election's ga and MP ki vachey sariki 10 percent taguthundhee...........starting 1983 TDP ki kaam's voting downfall avuthundhee and few places lo 50:50 undhee as u said.........nenu isari 1983 laganey untadhee voting anukuntuna if at all 1994 election madira ga ayina vunthadhee minimum anukuntunaa.............almost INC nunchee maximum e section leaders TDP vaipu vacharuu and coming to YCP manamu valla candiates list chusthey maximum 20 seats istunaruu chudandhi and regular pattern lo ayithey kanism vallu 30-35 seats allocate cheyali ...that itself indicates ground lo isari INC nunchee vadiki support chesey batch tagguthundhee and almost recchagottinathey and election's daggara padey kodhhi konchem galatluu kuda jaragavachu area ni batti akkada opposite section medha ............ good analysis brother.. wish it happens....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaitra Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 mostly ilanay raavachu results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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