The Great American Reset is here & collapse of Pax Americana Rules Based Order. Today WTO has become redundant. Trump wants to take us back to 1930s. 26% tariffs on India, 34% on China (Cumulative 54%), Taiwan 32%, Vietnam 46%, EU 20%, Japan & Korea 24 & 25%.
Smoot Hawley Tariffs Act, the Great Depression in West, collapse of League of nations, British Empire under sever Debt and the Pound was getting debased. And the world was looking towards War.
We are in a similar situation. Obviously markets are going to react. But its not the time to give up on India story & dump or leave. Rather restructure your portfolio and pick big giants at lows so that you can ride the storm easily.
The Indian economy is going to get impacted by these tariffs. Focus has to be on domestic sectors FMCG, Hospitality, Pharma CDMO, Defence, Infrastructure, Capital Goods, Renewables (Power), selected IT stocks as AI revolution is loading. And companies that are working with AI deployment will do better with solid parentage.
Many conglomerates have tied up with Western giants from NVIDIA to TESLA to Starlink and some are tying with up Chat CPT & META. The marquee names with solid parentage, group backing and money are the ones to ride on. They will ultimately bounce back.
But other relatively unknown names in Small & MidCaps may not see the old levels for years. The world is moving towards War Economy & Trade Wars with AI revolution on the horizon set to disrupt trends.
India 140 crore population is sufficient to sustain ourself. Increased liquidity, better earnings in Q1 due to Base Effect YoY, Infra Capex underway, rate cuts by RBI; a possible trade deal make India relatively safer than rest of the world.
The Buy China trade is over with 54% cumulative Tariffs on China. If the Americans have to compete with the Chinese they need Indian market from Tech to EVs as China is snipping at their profit margins by commoditising low cost AI models. Russia is anyway GSIB of commodities.
This may be the last few sessions of the Dip, there is no need to panic sell but rather restructure portfolios and pick on sectoral giants those who may fall but will recover fast when the tide turns.
Expect trade deal with USA by fall. Side by side India should fast track BTA with European Union & UK. Going with China is going to invite more tariffs & retaliation from USA. We have anyway chosen to integrate our Defence, Aerospace, Tech supply chains with US supply Chains.
The service economy (IT) largely remains unaffected by Tariffs per se. Manufacturing & Exports will take a hit be it Telecom, Electronics, Textiles, Chemicals, select Autos with US exposure.
Secular Bull run post Covid is over not everything is going to run. Pick & Chose carefully and stay invested in India story for the decade.