KA Analysis

[anil Ongole]

North Karnataka can be divided into two as North-East Karnataka and North-West Karnataka.

Let me start with North-West Karnataka, as the constituency number 1 (Nippani) is from this region.

North-West Karnataka (Kittur Karnataka or Mumbai Karnataka)

Mahadayi issue might have an impact in 5-6 constituencies of Belagavi, Dharwad and Gadag districts.

1. Belagavi (Belgaum, Total 18 constituencies, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC except in 3-4 seats where MNS has it's presence)

BJP is strong in this district. Even in 2013, when bjp got divided into BJP, KJP, BSRCP BJP got 9, KJP 1 and BSRCP 1 seat.

Notably, MES (Maharastra Ekikarana Samiti) has it's presence in 3-4 constituencies. In 2013, it won 2 seats. It’s support base is mostly marathi speaking Hindus.

So, if BJP can consolidate Hindu votes (both Kannada and Marathi) it can win 12-15 seats out of 18.

B S Yediyurappa (BSY) led Parivarthana yatra was a big success in this district.

Visits by Modiji and Yogiji along with Amith Shahji's efforts can change the scene for BJP's good. This will be true for other districts as well.

2. Bagalkot (Total 7 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC)

BJP's fort in 2008, but had to settle for only 1 seat in 2013.

If BJP maintains the momentum gained by the Parivarthana yatra it can easily win 5-7 seats.

3. Vijayapura (Bijapur, Total 8 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC except in 1 seat where JD(S) has it's presence due to a particular individual)

BJP is strong in this district. In 2008 it had won 5 seats.

This time, lingayat separate religion movement might have some effect in this district. But BJP can mollify this effect by bringing in independent MLC Basavanagouda Patil Yatnal. Yatnal was a minister in Atalji's cabinet and belongs to numerically dominant panchamasali sub-caste of lingayat.

Parivarthana yatra was a big success in this district too.

BJP can win 4-6 seats.

4. Dharwad (Total 7 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC except in 1 seat where JD(S) has it's presence due to a particular individual)

Yogiji's Hubli rally during Parivarthana yatra was attended by good number of people. BJP is very strong in this district.

BJP can win 4-6 seats.

5. Gadag (Total 4 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC)

BJP had swept all 4 seats in 2008 and lost all 4 in 2013 due to division of votes between BJP,KJP and BSRCP.

Now, that both BSY and Sreeramulu who have clout in this district back to BJP's fold, it can expect to win 3-4 seats.

6. Haveri (Total 6 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC)

BJP is very strong and had won 5 seats in 2008.

If they can sort out BJP/KJP confusion, BJP can repeat it's 2008 performance and can win 4-5 seats.

North-East Karnataka (Kalyana Karnataka or Hyderabad Karnataka)

1. Bidar (Total 6 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC except in 2 seats where JD(S) has it's presence due to a particular individuals)

BJP candidate won Bidar Loksabha seat by defeating Dharam Singh, former CM from INC.

If BJP maintains the momentum gained by the Parivarthana yatra and with Hindu consolidation it can easily win 3-5 seats.

2. Gulbarga (Total 9 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC)

BJP is quite strong in this district and had performed very well in Zilla panchayat elections.

Parivarthana yatra was a big success in this district as well.

BJP can win 5-7 seats here.

3. Yadgir (Total 4 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC except in 1 seat where JD(S) has it's presence due to a particular individual)

This district was created by BJP govt. BJP is strong in this district.

BJP can win 2-3 seats here.

4. Raichur (Total 7 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC except in 2 seats where JD(S) has it's presence due to a particular individuals)

4 out of 7 seats are reserved for ST category. With Sreeramulu, who is considered as a tallest ST leader back, BJP is in a good position.

BJP can win 4-6 seats.

5. Bellary (Total 9 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC)

5 out of 9 seats are reserved for ST category. This is Sreeramulu's home district. BJP is in a good position.

BJP can win 6-8 seats.

6. Koppal (Total 5 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC)

Many INC MLAs have got negative publicity due to their misdeeds and arrogance. Also BJP won Koppal Loksabha seat.

So BJP can win 3-4 seats.

Coastal Karnataka

This is the region where BJP will be expecting to do a near complete sweep. Hindu consolidation due to appeasement politics of INC government will help BJP.

1. Dakshina Kannada (Mangalore Total 8 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC)

A short visit by Modiji after Gujarat election result's day gave a big boost to BJP workers in this district.

Also, lot of INC leaders including Janardhana Poojary are unhappy with the CM and district in charge minister.

BJP can easily win 6-8 seats.

2. Udupi (Total 5 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC)

BJP had swept this district in 2008. With Haladi Srinivas Shetty back and Jayaprakash Hegde joining BJP, BJP is in a very good position.

BJP can easily win 4-5 seats.

3. Uttara Kannada (Karwar Total 6 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC except in 2 seats where JD(S) has it's presence due to a particular individuals)

With Ananth Kumar Hegde becoming union minister and Hindu consolidation due to appeasement politics of INC government will help BJP.

BJP can win 4-5 seats.

Central and Malnad Karnataka [Some districts can be considered as part of old mysore as well]

1. Davangere (Total 8 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC except in 2 seats where JD(S) has it's presence due to a particular individuals. Even JDU has it's presence in Channagiri constituency)

BJP had won 7 out of 8 seats in 2008.

Here also to some extent BJP/KJP confusion exists. If that is sorted out BJP can win 5-7 seats.

2. Chitradurga (Total 6 seats, Bipolar contest between BJP and INC)

BJP is in a quite good position with BSY and Sreeramulu back. But in this district independents have surprised both national parties.

BJP can win 3-4 seats.

3. Tumkur (Total 11 seats, Triangular contest in all 8 seats where BJP has presence. In another 3 it's a contest between INC and JD(S))

BJP is quite strong in this district. It has strong presence in 7 out of 11 seats.

Here also to some extent BJP/KJP confusion exists. If that is sorted out BJP can win 4-6 seats.

4. Shimoga (Total 7 seats, few seats it's triangular and in some direct contest between BJP and INC. 1 seat contest is between INC and JD(S))

BSY and Eshwarappa's home district. Shimoga is considered as BJP's Karnataka headquarters. It had won 5 out of 7 in 2008.

With Kumar Bangarappa son of Bangarappa, ex- CM joining BJP, BJP has increased it's strength.

BJP can win 5-6 seats with distributing tickets strategically.

5. Chikkamagalur (Total 5 seats, 3 seats direct contest between BJP and INC and another 2 it's triangular)

BJP had won 4 out of 5 in 2008. Later in bypoll it won the remaining seat also.

Hindu consolidation due to appeasement politics of INC government will help BJP in atleast 3 constituencies.

BJP can win 4-5 seats.

Bangalore Urban (Bangalore City Total seats 28, except 5-6 seats remaining seats have direct contest between BJP and INC)

In 2013, even with anti-incumbency BJP had got 12 seats. In 2015, BBMP polls with anti-incumbency BJP could get 100 out of 198.

So BJP is very strong in Bangalore urban district. Modi factor very much works in almost all constituencies here.

BJP can win 16-20 seats.

Old Mysore

1. Hassan (Total 7 seats, 4 seats it's a triangular contest and in other 3, it's a contest between INC and JD(S))

HD Devegowda's home district. JD(S) is very strong here. BJP has it's presence in 3-4 constituencies.

BJP's Parivarthana Yatra was received well in 4 constituencies.

If the same momentum is maintained, BJP can win couple of seats.

2. Kodagu (Madikeri, Total 2 seats, 1 seat Triangular and another direct contest between BJP and INC)

This is the first Congress mukth district, as MLAs, MLC, MP all are from BJP. BJP did well in ZP polls as well.

Tippu jayanthi by INC govt can hit INC very hard in this district.

BJP is expected to retain both seats.

3. Mysore (Total 11 seats, 2 seats direct contest between BJP and INC, 6 seats Triangular contest and another 3 direct contest between INC and JD(S))

CM Siddaramaiah's home district. BJP is strong in urban(2 seats) and some rural seats also. With Dalit leader Sreenivasa prasad joining BJP, it has increased it's strength.

BJP can win 3-5 seats.

4. Chamarajnagar (Total 4 seats, 3 direct contest between BJP and INC, 1 seat BSP has presence, so it can be triangular)

BJP is strong in this district. With Dalit leader Sreenivasa prasad joining BJP, it has increased it's strength.

BJP can win 2-3 seats.

5. Mandya (Total 7 seats, 5 direct contest between INC and JD(S), 2 Triangular due to presence of a farmer's party)

BJP doesn't have presence in this district. It will be miracle if it win's a seat. JD(S) is expected to sweep this district.

6. Ramnagar (Total 4 seats, 3 direct contest between JD(S) and INC, 1 seat BJP has presence, so it can be triangular)

BJP will depend on personal charishma of CP Yogeshwar to win Channapatna seat. BJP has expectation only in this seat.

7. Bangalore Rural (Total 4 seats, 2 Triangular, 1 direct contest between BJP and INC, 1 between INC and JD(S))

BJP has presence in 3 seats. It had won 2 seats in 2008 and 1 more in by poll.

BJP can win 1-2 seats.

8. Kolar (Total 6 seats, 2 triangular, 1 contest between BJP and INC and another 3 contest between INC and JD(S))

BJP had won 2 seats in 2008 and 1 more in by election.

BJP can win 1-2 seats.

9. Chikkaballapur (Total 5 seats, 1 triangular and other 4 direct contest between JD(S) and INC)

BJP has it's presence only in one seat.

BJP can win just 1 seat.

Chances of BJP and Congress are 45% and 55% respectively. 

 

https://www.quora.com/Who-will-win-in-Karnataka-election-2018-Congress-or-BJP/answer/Louis-Carlo?share=38de12ed&srid=uTcmP

 

Some one posted in quora seems like bjp ki edje unattu chepthunnaduga..

[Npower]

Visits by Modiji and Yogiji along with Amith Shahji's efforts can change the scene for BJP's good. This will be true for other districts as well.

JEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE HUJOOOOOOOOOR.

[rama123]

Bangalore 16 to 20 naa?

[RKumar]

BJP internal fake survey report aa?

[rama123]

Modi factor enti..emanna BJP geluste anti incumbancy valla gelavochu.

Bangalore urban Congress will sweep since Telugu Tamil voters against bjp.