mahesh1987

uncertainty over the movement of system Need to wait some time for exact movement Intial Northwest after coming closely to coast neady pondicheri, then recorve possible to north-northeast

Elnino rapidly decreasing

Monsoon forecast

Imd latest * The upper air cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka coast now lies over southwest Bay of Bengal off Srilanka coast & adjoining equatorial Indian ocean and extends upto 3.1 km above mean sea level. Under its influence, a low pressure area very likely to form over the same region by tomorrow. It is likely to become well marked and further concentrate into a depression during subsequent next 48 hours. *Conditions are becoming favourable for onset of southwest monsoon over Nicobar Islands, south Andaman sea and parts of south Bay of Bengal during next 3 -­ 4 days.

Most accurate ECMWF forecast

Low pressure area by may 14 at srilanka coast and will concentrate into depression by 16th in same area ---IMD

Models are clearly struggling with pattern

Geps showing tamilnadu landfall

May 18 Gfs tracking system miving North East

May 17

UKMET forcast Descent convective activity seen over SL/SW bay as of 00z satellite image.. NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 9.7N 80.0E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.05.2016 9.7N 80.0E MODERATE 00UTC 16.05.2016 9.9N 79.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.05.2016 9.7N 79.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.05.2016 11.7N 79.2E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.05.2016 12.0N 75.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

A Low Pressure Area is expected to form over South West Bay of Bengal and adjoining Equatorial North Indian Ocean around 14th. Its movement and any signs of its intensification must be closely watched in the coming days. Stay tuned for daily updates.

momentum shifted from arebian sea to bay of Bengal

low pressure area may form around maldeives by may 13----IMD

mahabobnagar 110 mm Chevella-parigi-vikarabad-tandur belt. 35mm

South western of Hyderabad soaking in very heavy rain Rangareddy and mahabob nagar diatricts

Heavy rain and rumbling thunders less winds

Massive stroms near medak and bihar diatricts Evening ki hyd lo rain chances vunnay

data will change every 6 hours based on the conditions annai Overall gaa above normal rains conform ee year

Chances for another cyclone forming near maldeves in a week and will travel to south maharashtra coast, thus will leas to early onset of monsoons in indian peninsula

Possible first cyclone of this season Less impact to land, moving in open waters