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gutta_NTR

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Can Donald Trump somehow ride an angry wave of Rust Belt blue collar white votes into the White House? Today the Atlantic’s Ronald Brownstein weighs in with one of the most comprehensive analyses yet of this question, one that rests on demographic analysis and interviews with strategists in both parties.

The key takeaway from Brownstein’s analysis: It’s not impossible , but a lot has to go right for Trump in order to make it happen, rendering it highly improbable.

The starting point here is the view — shared by operatives in both parties — that the industrial Midwest is the most promising ground for Trump to make inroads, because in virtually all of the swing states in that region, “whites without a college degree exceed their share of the national vote.” The problem, though, is that for unknown reasons, Democrats tend to win among that demographic in that region by slightly larger percentages than they do nationally. Which means that Trump has to run up the score enormously among working class whites, relative to Mitt Romney’s 2012 performance, in these states in order to win them:

This is only slightly more optimistic for Trump than the analysis that demographer Ruy Teixeira recently conducted for this blog, which showed that Trump would have to drive the Dem share of the white working class vote down six points in Wisconsin, six points in Pennsylvania, and three points in Ohio. While Brownstein’s analysis concludes Ohio is within reach for Trump, he also identifies a number of other problems:

— Trump’s prospects for winning those states by driving down the Dems’ share of the blue collar white vote assume that he performs as well as Romney did among both nonwhites and college educated whites . It’s reasonable to predict Trump may alienate both those groups and could under-perform among them.

 

Indeed, here looms the demographic trap I’ve talked about before: Whatever Trump says and does to drive up his share of the blue collar white vote could also produce a corresponding drop in his share of the nonwhite and/or college educated white vote.

— Trump’s ability to remain constant among college educated whites could be complicated by the possibility that he’ll alienate college educated white women, and national polls show that he already under-performs among them. Democrats have already signaled that they’re going to make a big play for suburban women.

— Trump’s ability to win over blue collar white votes in far larger numbers could also be complicated if he alienates blue collar white women . It’s also a demographic that the Clinton campaign is certain to make an aggressive play for with an emphasis on kitchen table economics.

— Trump could also try to drive up turnout among blue collar whites in the industrial Midwest, but that will be complicated by ongoing demographic shifts that are rendering even relatively whiter Rust Belt states less white.

— All of this could be exacerbated by high turnout among African Americans, in part thanks to Trump’s affection for spewing insults in the direction of Barack Obama.

— For all these reasons, and also because Michigan and Pennsylvania are both very hard lifts for any GOP presidential candidate, conservative strategists interviewed by Brownstein conclude that Trump’s most likely path would require him to win Florida and Ohio. But even here, he’d probably need two more Rust Belt states (ones that are more gettable than Michigan and Pennsylvania) to win, such as Wisconsin and Iowa.

So, if Brownstein has this right, here’s what would have to happen for Trump to get elected president: He’d probably have to drive down likely nominee Hillary Clinton’s share of some of the Rust Belt blue collar white vote to levels substantially lower than Barack Obama received. He’d also have to come close to matching Romney’s performance among nonwhites and college educated whites. This would mean somehow dodging that demographic trap and avoiding alienating college educated and non-college white women, which might be tough, given Trump’s apparently uncontrollable public displays of sexism and all around disgusting-ness. He’d probably have to win Florida and Ohio, and a couple more Rust Belt states, too.

Anything is possible, and Democrats by all means should not under-estimate Trump. But this seems tough to pull off.

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Blue color whites in swing states like pa, oh, mi support democrats traditionally. He has to exceptionally score in this area to negate the loss of women, minorities etc

 

gutta bro....wanna know something ?  in a realistic sense......95% aa articles lo, tv s la lo  garbage vuntadhi....none of these people have any credibility...america ayina India laagane...just to fill up the space, as simple as that........

 

Hard news( adhi kuuda kastam yE....how to pick that from people who subliminally coat the hard news also with slants, motives & ideologies etc....It is an art..who told it is easy ?..finding facts and truth in any matter is not straight forward always )  nunchi  telusukone  'skill' develop chEsukOvaali.......Otherwise, tv la lo newspapers lo, websites lo nunchi vacche antha  Quality(what is quality? urge to explore facts & seek truth) anukone pramaadam vundhi.....

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(generic topic..for those who like extra reading....) yenduku vasthundhi vishayam sarigga kanapadeneeyani sthithi ( slant/bias/ideology/business angle/job requirement etc...for garden variety typical journalists, now a days, India or US or anywhere for that matter) drusti ki?........muriki....impressions....

 

manadhi Indian heritage kaabatti aa lingo lo cheppukonte native gaa vuntadhi...suddham asuddham rendu rakaalu gaa vuntadhi manassu......kaamam(yE variety lo naina kaliste....) vunte sankalpam lo asuddham, kaamam lEkapOvatam suddham........asuddham gaa vunte chuuse chuupu lo marakalu padathaayi, avi vasthuvu meedha padathaayi, dhaanni nija sthithi lo chuuse sakthi thaggipOthadhi..sumpuurNam gaa suddham ante manassu anEdhi lEnatle, for technical purpose...

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(Generic....) So what is the take away here?

 

purreko reethi gaa anipinchindhi raasthaa vuntaaru,vaasthavam avvalsina pàni lEdhu...instead of consuming much of the overload of information, key is 'cleaning the lens' to view the object more precisely.....

 

Cleaning the lens ? Exactly.....Is one time enough? kaLLajOdu pettukunevaaLLu okasaari clean chEsukonte saripOthundhaa? samsaaram(vishaya prapancham)lo vunnantha kaalam muriki padathaa vuntadhi....so

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inka ee article gurinchaa?...okati rendu mukkalu...yEM raasaaru anEkante yevaru raasaaru? That is more important....Ron brownstein ante...maree ideological junkie kaadhu....still liberal slant vuntadhi.....dhaani kante yekkuva, yEdho cheppaali, everyday kottha gaa, article raasukunte job, vishayam lo authentic observation yEdhi lEkapOyina makeup chEsi raasthavuntaaru.....malli rendu rOjullo inkokati raayaali...ground meedha news kante vaaLlu vunna bubble(washington,NY) lo press/TV batch same opinions recycling chEstha vuntaaru....,vaaLla personal likings antha oka echo chamber ....nothing much genuine stuff from real facts & reality...get it?

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Vedu gelisthe vachhe profits or losses emi unnayi??? Can anyone explain please

Veedu gelichina odina manakoche nastam em ledu kaani .. gelisthe matram US xxxxx naaki pothundi :D

 

Konni sarlu veedi interviews chusthe mana Rahul better anipisthundi .. At least hatred ni promote cheyyadu ..Ila topic divert chesukuntu pakkallani attack cheukuntu enni rojulu laakkosthadoo chudali :D Repu nomination vasthe start avuthundi asalu music .. atu side Hillary vachina Berny vachina sare okaa aata aadukuntaru .. :D

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Vedu gelisthe vachhe profits or losses emi unnayi??? Can anyone explain please

Your doubt may seem basic at outset, looks simple, yet it is very great Q king bro......some of the posts are aimed for that purpose only, not necessarily looking from 'object' perspective but with some objectivity....let's go through, what exactly that means?

 

How do you want to view? CBN vasthe oka Oriya manishiki berhempur lo yEnti laabham? Or kakinada lo vunna andhra vyakti yEm prayOjanam?

 

okE vastuvunu anEka drusti la tho chuudacchu....so you will have to see, which way you want to view?

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Your doubt may seem basic at outset, looks simple, yet it is very great Q king bro......some of the posts are aimed for that purpose only, not necessarily looking from 'object' perspective but with some objectivity....let's go through, what exactly that means?

 

How do you want to view? CBN vasthe oka Oriya manishiki berhempur lo yEnti laabham? Or kakinada lo vunna andhra vyakti yEm prayOjanam?

 

okE vastuvunu anEka drusti la tho chuudacchu....so you will have to see, which way you want to view?

my intention is to know what impact it will create on INDIA ? Nuclear Deal/Army deal like that..  as we all know US acts like super power

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Let's take one more bite with another example...

 

India lo ki Assam,Bengal sarihaddhullo illegal gaa jorapadaali anukune vyakti ki modi, mamata/liberals/communists etc rendu rakaalu gaa kanipisthaaru....oke vidham gaa vundadhu..liberals,/mamata/communists friendly gaa kanipistaaru....nellore lo vunna vyakti ki alaa kanipinchaka pOvacchu....alaanti issue lo modi friendly gaa kanipistaadu...India lo allarlu chEddham,religious conversions chEddhaam anukone aa illegal Bangladeshi Muslim ki modi villain...

 

Everything depends on how you - VIEW

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my intention is to know what impact it will create on INDIA ? Nuclear Deal/Army deal like that.. as we all know US acts like super power

Trump US angle lo ne chuustaadu...Mari anthaku mundu vaaLLu kuuda adhEgaa? Doubt vastadhi.....not necessarily.... Iraq war lo sontha agenda vundhaa bush ki, kevalam US security koraku chEsindhaa?

 

Trump laanti vaaLLu arudu gaa vastaaru...republican party nomination kOsam try chEsthaa. aa party previous ex president ni vimarsichadam suicidal(conventional wisdom lo).… but he goes by his world view,and backs up his belief....

 

Normal TV/newspaper pundits ki Trump artham kaadu....reason,they think they know a lot...sad thing is not only republicans,dems ,newspapers,TVs ,journalists all were cheer leading Iraq war...lot of these folks think talking in beautiful english with buzz words means vision,knowledge...that arrogance deprives one to 'see' facts properly....get it...

 

Trump will be more america cheerleading -wealth creation focus... at the same time he is not quick trigger(common sense yekkuva use chEstaadu) for interventions....

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Trump US ni colonial or hegemonical view lo chuudadu.....he has fresh view...eg. NATO /his view on that....95% political class ki both repubs/dems,newspapers ki/TV pundits ki artham kaadhu...simply clueless....

 

Independent gaa vishayaalanu chuudaalanukone vyakti ..it is going against bureaucracy ...plus it saves lot of money for US...ante basical gaa 65 years back pettina NATO (soviet ki opp.) ki ivvaaLa relevance vundhaa adhe shape/form lo(anti soviet model)..ivvaaLa real threat yEnti US ki? Q chEsthunnaadu..it is not Russia,it is religious fundamentalism.....it is extra ordinary to talk like that in american politics...don't expect this from any current political class irrespective of party .....

 

pus patti infect ayina konni systems meedha antiseptic pOsinatlu....andhuke political class, bureaucracy/PC police ki threat laaga kanipistunnaadu...

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Remember this..applicable any where....Leadership is not always going with bureaucracy....bureaucracy systems in kottha gaa create/design/modify chEse vaadu....Leader

 

Eg. Annaay ntr bureaucrats kante vere thinking vundEdhi....superior knowledge....

 

Bureaucrat: sir sir meeru alaa ante prajalu godavalaku dhiguthaarEmo( naxals graamasthulani kottadaaniki vasthe- meeru(graamasthulani) aatma rakshaNa chEsukOvacchu -ntr)

Ntr (CM): chithaka baaduthaa vunte police lu vacchedhaaka chEthulu muduchuku kuurchOvaala? No...aatma rakshaNa chEsukontam thappu kaadhu...

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(Couple of words extension to post # 18.....regarding NATO etc.)

 

conventional wisdom lo.......NATO issue lo alaanti position(Questioning the validity in present day circumstances) ante ......America lo  Kejriwal laanti Bernie sanders kuuda cheppalEdu.ante far left vaaLLaku kuuda gunde dhairyam raadhu(politically speaking)......mari konni vishayaallo ( isis problem - muslims ni temporary gaa marotorium to enter US from those troubled countries)  toughest & strongest positions(security/military) vundi...mari konni vishayaallo idhEnti  NATO gurinchi , adhendhuku?, antha kharchendhuku?....ilaa maatlaadatam  maamulu gaa  raajakiya vislEshaNa chEsukune vaaLLaki  artham kaadhu, anthu pattadhu...

 

......he is not taking positions from Party stereo type or ideological bents, necessarily.......most commonsense(common public aalOchanala dhaggari lo) anipinchElaa vunte.....political class, media class ki  rOmaalu nikkaboduchukuntunna   aa  position ki veLthunnaadu( he knows damn well...isis problem lo thana stance ke andharu vasthaaru mundhu arachi gOla pettinaa..).........adhe token lo,  NATO laanti vishayaalu  Democratic(liberal most) ki kante  'left' gaa kanipinche  positions theesukontunnaadu, Republican party lo pOti chEsthaa.(fyi ..repubs koddiga hawks....dems doves...in military issues generally)

 

media, party establishments both rep/dem, beauracrats  vishayaalanu  left aa right aa ideological itu aa atu alaa chuusthaaru......he is not going by those  patterns......In my estimation, thats why he is  Lethal.....could be very effective, especially in fighting the menace of isis etc without nonsense.....It seems, Common sense is driving his policy(bhayata ku rebel gaa, daring gaa kanipinchinaa-  deep down his positions are popular - that means risky stance kaadhu, he knows that) plus courage chupisthunnaadu....

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Typically...this much depth here, considering the avg. interest of db brother towards this kind of topics, why ? 

 

Do watch  cnn, fox, nbc, msnbc or read, nytimes, wa post or other stuff etc.....most of the folks are not reading the phenomenon of Trump correctly......they are just blinded by so many things to view the object( be it ideology/liberal, ego, got swept away in the drama or outward appearances, status quo, so many things....)  properly....

 

few brothers ki interesting gaa vuntadhi ani - a fresh bite on the apple........

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Why he could be more effective in fighting religious fundamentalists etc...?  simple gaa, to explain the mindset and approach...

 

India laagaane US lo  kuuda liberalism vipareetham gaa vuntadhi.....media lo, political circles lo, elites lo ...Total PC....sanitized....as you all know,  kasab ki weekly quota kOdi pulav pettaara ? lEdhaa....veeti meedha vuntadhi  liberal vaadham...andhulo masala thaggina godava chEsthaaru.....anni chOtla anthe....

 

america lo kuuda anthe,  waterboarding cheyyakuudadhu adhi  torture....adhi anaagarikam ....we are different.....terrorists lu beheading chEsi duty dhigi  kabobs thinta, jokes vEsukontaa navvukontaaru......stupidity ni chuusi.....

 

vaaLLani hadalagottaali ante, vaaLLa  bhasha theliyaali....Enemy ki pOyinchaali.....laws addam anukonte, kotthavi create chEsukOvaali.......anthe kaani , manchi uniforms vEsukoni , country vs country laaga yuddham chEsukone   Rules & regulations paniki raavu...... atlaa aalOchinche   no nonsense mentality vundaali.......Trump is recognizing that.....common public  media elites laaga  think cheyyaru.....sensible gaa vuntadhi, end of the day atuvanti  mindset vunna leader kanipisthe  atu veLLipOthaaru...will give a damn to PC & niceties when fighting a war .....They will gravitate towards strong person....

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Trump ki vunna Trump card - communication & skill...

 

'ee terrorists ni  nEnaithe  waterboarding chEyisthaa....inka rough  methods upayOginchaali ante venukaadanu...'  gaggOlu pettaaru  media, competitors, elites, liberals, tv pundits...... demonize chEsaaru....negative programs tho....

 

Trump knows better.....ee issue lo arupulu gOla thaggina taruvaatha ......public yekkuva mandhi thana vaipu vuntaaru(not bothered about media/ uproar etc) ane estimation.........plus, he knows how to communicate in a way common public can understand in simple terms....public opinion ni thana vaipu thippukone ability chuupisthunnaadu....

-----------------------------------------------(news excerpt - today's)--------------

 

Exclusive: Most Americans support torture against terror suspects - poll
BY  Reuters
 

Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe torture can be justified to extract information from suspected terrorists. Donald Trump, the front-runner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, has forcefully injected the issue of whether terrorism suspects should be tortured into the election campaign.

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ee roju morning, abortion cheyinchukunna ammayini punish chryali ani annadu. evening ki doctor ni punish chyali ammayini vadileyani ani annadu...lol

 

endi, trump isis ni aaputada? hahahahaha joke of the year. Bjp velli seperstist party pdp legs meeda paddttu, eedu kuda same. modi and trump are the same. one fellow is a murderer, the other one is a money swindler and economic fraud 

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