My reasons for TDP loss.

[Kumbk]

I am an NRI, so I don't know ground reality. Whatever I understood is what I gleaned from reading news & various forums and my analysis based on observing of human nature. I was suspecting TDP loss from some time, but refrained from posting due to people taking constructive criticism as negativity in this DB. I believe CBN did a very good job in running the state, but failed to garner the confidence of people. I am not devaluing his contributions to the party or state, so don't think of me as his hater. I liked his rule in 2014-19 lot better than his earlier stint. He became more mature and learnt from his past mistakes, but repeated many of his earlier mistakes.

Here is my dissection for this brutal loss. Of course all of it may not be true, so take it with a pinch of salt. There are many other valid reasons given by others. So I am limiting my dissection to CBN's actions and decisions this term.

1) Neutrals and BCs might have moved away.

a) Lot of neutrals moved away due to corruption allegations on MLAs. CBN didn't act decisively this time. I am suspecting this from me reading complaints online about his rule.

b) Too much Kapu appeasement. What is the use of sponsoring oc kids to USA higher education? Will they fetch any votes? All the news bytes always are some thing for Kapus. I don't know if kapus voted for CBN, but if I were a BC, I'd have moved away from TDP.

2) He projected weakness this term. 

a) Always playing victim card won't work. Rather he should have projected the people as victims and he as savior. In stead the projection in AJ was that state was doing fine and everyone was out to get CBN.

b) Not acting decisively on opponents, be it KCR, or fighting for Andhra rights. Telangana gave a jolt to Andhra by grabbing all assets in the beginning and irrigation projects. CBN didn't inspire confidence when he didn't take precautions on such an important matter. The entire Andhra govt. acted as if helpless. The two-eyed theory from CBN's point was right from TDP's perspective because of the need to keep TDP alive in both states. But from Andhra point of view, it made CBN weak due to confrontation less approach toward Telangana in the first few years. 

c) Not being decisive with wayward MLAs/MPs. The way people like Ali, Adala, Amanchi etc, behaved in the last few months shows that he lost the plot.

3) CBN's leadership qualities need to improve.

a) He should have delegated more and relaxed a little bit. I work for a demanding boss and have to be on call 24 hours. I can imagine the pain of people working for him. It doesn't inspire loyalty and is actually demotivating to tier-2 leaders and they tend to do only the minimum required. A good leader actually works less and gives freedom and motivation for hard working tier-2 people to grow. CBN put most of the fiery youth like Galla on leash for many years to not confront BJP in the beginning.

b) With CBN everything is about numbers.  I used to roll over eyes whenever reading news about CBN telling people's satisfaction increased by 5% or 10% or whatever. This type of CEOs bring short term profits for companies , but the company goes to ground in the long term because they ignore the human interaction aspect. Let loose the tier-2 leaders who are hard working and groom them for bigger role in the party. 

4) CBN failed in the art of managing expectations, no he actually himself created this impossible to achieve expectations for himself.

a) Too much publicity from rags like AJ actually did more harm than good. In other regions, they imagined CBN spending all the money on Amaravati. In places like Krishna, most of the people didn't see any material improvement in their life, and so got jealous of the land owners getting rich. WTF is it with AJ covering everything as panduga, utshavam, thiyanni kaburu, shubavartha?

b) Too much graphics of amaravati created a big hurdle for CBN. It raised the expectations to very high level which are impossible to meet for any one. Lets say if someone says they will jump to moon. Even if they jump 1000 km to reach stratosphere, people will make fun and devalue that jump of 1000km. But on the other hand, if people think you can't jump 1 m high, but you jump 2m, people will think  great of that achievement. 

c) Same on Polavaram; publicizing such tight deadlines to public and giving them to contractors is bad. Things won't get completed within such 0-margin deadlines because there is no margin for error. The contractors have to spend lot more if they have to complete something in 2 months vs 1 year. It gives your opponents a weapon to attack you. And neutrals will think less of you if things are not completed. 

5) I had a friend in BTech who worked very hard and who bragged a lot. The rest of class moved away from him. I guess something like this must have happened with him and BJP leadership.

[Rtn]

The simple truth is that his style of leadership suits the corprate world more than a messed up democracy like India. 

[sudhakar21]

But Jagan has not fought for state on even one issue and wont and I agree your points

[Vishal_Ntr]

jagga entire focus on poll management and PK helped him a lot!! truth 

[sudhakar21]

Poll mgmt is only part of election it is complete sweep from people

[Rajakeeyam]

For me;

1) pk leaving us

2) Rahul baba kanduva kappatam

[ravikia]

15 minutes ago, Rajakeeyam said:

For me;

1) pk leaving us

2) Rahul baba kanduva kappatam

By tomorrow we will know what damage PK did. It looks mostly due to him only. Rahul baba kanduva bad thing. He did it for short term gain in TG elections. He could have waited like KCR or Naveen babu not aligning with any one before elections. This CBN love towards TG or determination to bring down KCR has made him to hug Rahul, which could be a bad step.

[vinayak]

45 minutes ago, Kumbk said:

I am an NRI, so I don't know ground reality. Whatever I understood is what I gleaned from reading news & various forums and my analysis based on observing of human nature. I was suspecting TDP loss from some time, but refrained from posting due to people taking constructive criticism as negativity in this DB. I believe CBN did a very good job in running the state, but failed to garner the confidence of people. I am not devaluing his contributions to the party or state, so don't think of me as his hater. I liked his rule in 2014-19 lot better than his earlier stint. He became more mature and learnt from his past mistakes, but repeated many of his earlier mistakes.

Here is my dissection for this brutal loss. Of course all of it may not be true, so take it with a pinch of salt. There are many other valid reasons given by others. So I am limiting my dissection to CBN's actions and decisions this term.

1) Neutrals and BCs might have moved away.

a) Lot of neutrals moved away due to corruption allegations on MLAs. CBN didn't act decisively this time. I am suspecting this from me reading complaints online about his rule.

b) Too much Kapu appeasement. What is the use of sponsoring oc kids to USA higher education? Will they fetch any votes? All the news bytes always are some thing for Kapus. I don't know if kapus voted for CBN, but if I were a BC, I'd have moved away from TDP.

2) He projected weakness this term. 

a) Always playing victim card won't work. Rather he should have projected the people as victims and he as savior. In stead the projection in AJ was that state was doing fine and everyone was out to get CBN.

b) Not acting decisively on opponents, be it KCR, or fighting for Andhra rights. Telangana gave a jolt to Andhra by grabbing all assets in the beginning and irrigation projects. CBN didn't inspire confidence when he didn't take precautions on such an important matter. The entire Andhra govt. acted as if helpless. The two-eyed theory from CBN's point was right from TDP's perspective because of the need to keep TDP alive in both states. But from Andhra point of view, it made CBN weak due to confrontation less approach toward Telangana in the first few years. 

c) Not being decisive with wayward MLAs/MPs. The way people like Ali, Adala, Amanchi etc, behaved in the last few months shows that he lost the plot.

3) CBN's leadership qualities need to improve.

a) He should have delegated more and relaxed a little bit. I work for a demanding boss and have to be on call 24 hours. I can imagine the pain of people working for him. It doesn't inspire loyalty and is actually demotivating to tier-2 leaders and they tend to do only the minimum required. A good leader actually works less and gives freedom and motivation for hard working tier-2 people to grow. CBN put most of the fiery youth like Galla on leash for many years to not confront BJP in the beginning.

b) With CBN everything is about numbers.  I used to roll over eyes whenever reading news about CBN telling people's satisfaction increased by 5% or 10% or whatever. This type of CEOs bring short term profits for companies , but the company goes to ground in the long term because they ignore the human interaction aspect. Let loose the tier-2 leaders who are hard working and groom them for bigger role in the party. 

4) CBN failed in the art of managing expectations, no he actually himself created this impossible to achieve expectations for himself.

a) Too much publicity from rags like AJ actually did more harm than good. In other regions, they imagined CBN spending all the money on Amaravati. In places like Krishna, most of the people didn't see any material improvement in their life, and so got jealous of the land owners getting rich. WTF is it with AJ covering everything as panduga, utshavam, thiyanni kaburu, shubavartha?

b) Too much graphics of amaravati created a big hurdle for CBN. It raised the expectations to very high level which are impossible to meet for any one. Lets say if someone says they will jump to moon. Even if they jump 1000 km to reach stratosphere, people will make fun and devalue that jump of 1000km. But on the other hand, if people think you can't jump 1 m high, but you jump 2m, people will think  great of that achievement. 

c) Same on Polavaram; publicizing such tight deadlines to public and giving them to contractors is bad. Things won't get completed within such 0-margin deadlines because there is no margin for error. The contractors have to spend lot more if they have to complete something in 2 months vs 1 year. It gives your opponents a weapon to attack you. And neutrals will think less of you if things are not completed. 

5) I had a friend in BTech who worked very hard and who bragged a lot. The rest of class moved away from him. I guess something like this must have happened with him and BJP leadership.

You didn't mention about How Modi ditch us by giving water & mud.Even if CBN fights for Ap rights Modi is not ready to distribute our AP share & fulfill promises given.Initially CBN thought that Modi will help but Modi backstabbed which reversed CBN's plans.If modi is not promised  better capital than Delhi CBN would not have showed those Amaravati pics.

[Taraka Mantram]

Defnitely agree with weakness part.... every day carrying the victim card in speech 

next thing i think is backign wrong ppl. like sujana chow .. getting him place in central cabinte is a blunder.. instead should have made some one from BC or other caste or religion to keep the votes in tacts of those communities... backed many ppl despite IT raids.. instead he should have let them proved that they are innocent... lastly the media managemetn.. AJ etc channels too much hype and least ground coverage resulted in this disaster... 

[pchandhu]

Someone from younger generation has to take the leadership if TDP has to come into power for next election. 

 

[Kumbk]

1 minute ago, vinayak said:

You didn't mention about How Modi ditch us by giving water & mud.Even if CBN fights for Ap rights Modi is not ready to distribute our AP share & fulfill promises given.Initially CBN thought that Modi will help but Modi backstabbed which reversed CBN's plans.If modi is not promised  better capital than Delhi CBN would not have showed those Amaravati pics.

What you said is true. I guess CBN expected a free hand from Modi, but it didn't work out. BJP ni modathlo ala mosundalsindhi kadhu, lastlo antha vyathirekinchalsindhi kaadu. And mundhe funding lekkalu avi anni set ayyaka prajalaki announce cheyyundalshindhi. CBN put himself into corner in many ways, which made others (be it BJP, KCR etc) to attack him. 

[ravindras]

10 minutes ago, pchandhu said:

Someone from younger generation has to take the leadership if TDP has to come into power for next election. 

 

bharath is one option

[AbbaiG]

Good points brother. Agree with most of the points you raised 

[prakhyat]

1 hour ago, ravikia said:

By tomorrow we will know what damage PK did. It looks mostly due to him only. Rahul baba kanduva bad thing. He did it for short term gain in TG elections. He could have waited like KCR or Naveen babu not aligning with any one before elections. This CBN love towards TG or determination to bring down KCR has made him to hug Rahul, which could be a bad step.

[Bollu]

ichhana 350 crs back ki tesukokunte delhi vache vadu kadu uncle. a help kooda cheyakunda kill chesi padesaru.

[Rajakeeyam]

3 minutes ago, prakhyat said:

As predicted prp2 earth pettadu, that’s why annadhi aadini elagola kalupukupondi ra ani 🙇‍♂️

[ravikia]

15 minutes ago, Rajakeeyam said:

As predicted prp2 earth pettadu, that’s why annadhi aadini elagola kalupukupondi ra ani 🙇‍♂️

Bro except the above, PK didn't damage anywhere else. In fact he didn't get even considerable votes. I looked at constituency wise data on EC website and it is clear that people wanted to give chance to Jagan.

There are huge % margin difference between YSRCP and TDP starting from Srikakulam to West Godavari. It looks BCs swinged towards YSRCP and kapus votes went 1-2% to PK (not much beyond that). And as usual Rayalaseema complete one side voting to YSRCP, including Ananthapur (Where we got max in 2014).

 

[Taraka Mantram]

32 minutes ago, prakhyat said:

how can u say this is earth by jsp? even if u take these 35 from equation ycp still lead.... clear core vote shift from tdp also... bigtime failure by cbn and sitting mlas/mps.... rest of the country sitting mps or newbies from same party won.... here pure bad job and negligence from tdp leadeship

 

26 minutes ago, Rajakeeyam said:

As predicted prp2 earth pettadu, that’s why annadhi aadini elagola kalupukupondi ra ani 🙇‍♂️

 

[ravikia]

2 minutes ago, Taraka Mantram said:

how can u say this is earth by jsp? even if u take these 35 from equation ycp still lead.... clear core vote shift from tdp also... bigtime failure by cbn and sitting mlas/mps.... rest of the country sitting mps or newbies from same party won.... here pure bad job and negligence from tdp leadeship

 

 

Agree. I though it was just interim list. I looked at full constituency list and this is my opinion:

"

Bro except the above, PK didn't damage anywhere else. In fact he didn't get even considerable votes. I looked at constituency wise data on EC website and it is clear that people wanted to give chance to Jagan.

There are huge % margin difference between YSRCP and TDP starting from Srikakulam to West Godavari. It looks BCs swinged towards YSRCP and kapus votes went 1-2% to PK (not much beyond that). And as usual Rayalaseema complete one side voting to YSRCP, including Ananthapur (Where we got max in 2014)."

[Rajakeeyam]

4 minutes ago, Taraka Mantram said:

how can u say this is earth by jsp? even if u take these 35 from equation ycp still lead.... clear core vote shift from tdp also... bigtime failure by cbn and sitting mlas/mps.... rest of the country sitting mps or newbies from same party won.... here pure bad job and negligence from tdp leadeship

 

 

Ok migatha data kuda rani 

[pradeep01]

For me .

1. Youth are not connecting with Bob or Lokesh. I don't think TDP will better in this area even next election. 

2. TG lo stphen /MLC buying  episode and it showed CBN is no different. 

3. first two years, he wasted sometime at HYD by not moving to Amaraathi. 

4. benefits online transfer = good in general but it removed people touch 

[ravikia]

2 minutes ago, pradeep01 said:

For me .

1. Youth are not connecting with Bob or Lokesh. I don't think TDP will better in this area even next election. 

2. TG lo stphen /MLC buying  episode and it showed CBN is no different. 

3. first two years, he wasted sometime at HYD by not moving to Amaraathi. 

4. benefits online transfer = good in general but it removed people touch 

Could be True. But main reason, Public thinking or sympathizing with Jailgan and want to give him a chance, thinking he will put much bigger Laddu than CBN. Not even an inch of care for state development.

[King Of Masses]

2 hours ago, Rajakeeyam said:

For me;

1) pk leaving us

2) Rahul baba kanduva kappatam

RG mathram vadilipetatam ledhu every thread lo 

[Nfdbno1]

48 minutes ago, prakhyat said:

janasena votes effected 35 constituencies... what about others

[surendra.g]

I checked votes number (TDP+ JSP+BSP+Communist parties) at 8:30 pm.  we would have won another 39 seats with this combination and are still way behind magic figure.

[AbbaiG]

6 minutes ago, surendra.g said:

I checked votes number (TDP+ JSP+BSP+Communist parties) at 8:30 pm.  we would have won another 39 seats with this combination and are still way behind magic figure.

Seema + Nellore wash out

[ravindras]

in 2017 november i was searching for godavari-penna link news in google , i have seen @sonykongara posts on that topic . i felt some fantastic discussion going on different topics in db . i joined nfdb . 

this is my last post.  the following are my observations on the loss

1. amaravathi : hype created on amaravathi which caused resentment in other areas. cbn used to chant amaravathi with investment 1 to 2 lakh crores. people thought cbn spending money near kamma dominated areas. some people in the capital area complained that rents are increased due to capital. leakages due to shoddy construction also caused damaged to reputation to the government.

2. lost control : he unable to control excesses done by mla and their relatives , other party leaders . he surrendered to vocal sections like employees . employs didn't show loyalty even after doubling salaries. even barbers didn't give respect to cbn . appeasing won't help . we miss cbn 1995-2004 rule  . people don't like victims . if you(man) cry your girl friend will leave you.

3. janmabhoomi committees : these guys take money from people to sanction pension, house, and every welfare scheme. if government officer take bribe from the people , people think its  formality . if party leaders at ward level take bribe from the people they won't tolerate. people show their anger towards janmabhoomi committees on party

4. bc welfare & corporations : some leaders made chairman . they sanctioned loans to the party leaders benamis.  government offered subsidy loans . but the banks used to seek guarantee for remaining amount . suppose out of 5 lakhs ,government subsidy is 3 lakhs and 2 lakh is loan component, banks seek 2 lakh guarantee. poor people unable to get loan. it is better to give 3 lakh with 100% subsidy instead of giving 5 lakhs with 2 lakh as loan component.

5. appeasement of kapus : we lost our core votebank bc

6. janasena : kapus voted to janasena . my mla won with 31,000 majority in 2014 . he lost by 1300 votes 2019.

7.  long duration/frequent conferences : preparing for conference is hectic task . cbn conducts them frequently with long duration . government employees used to complain they are not getting enough time to work on field. they have to work overtime in field to compensate time lost for conferences.

8. priorities : in drought areas more we spend on irrigation more we get loyalty from farmers. spending on urban infra like metro won't bring votes. 

9. social media campaign on one community : caused immense hatred on tdp.

10. housing : tdp government spend 2000/square feet to build house with shearwall technology. if we build house with normal way we could build for 1200/ sft and give it to people for free . loan component in government scheme is dangerous. jagan said he waive off loans. people believed it . cbn also said he waive off loans in last 10 days of campaigned , this message didn't penetrated to masses.

11. fee reimbursement : parents of students(existing and upcoming) voted to jagan as they don't have to pay college fee. it is better to scrap nirudhyoga bhruthi and give complete fee reimbursement.

12. created more expectations : cbn created more expectations on capital and other development+welfare schemes . people started thinking that it is their right rather than dole out from government. cbn needs to constantly remind people about the state income  and tell his proprieties to people and convince people to decrease their expectations . 

i gave suggestion on janmabhoomi committees, housing and long duration/frequent conferences in early 2018 . some members in db kindled me. all i can say is "god bless them"

 

 

[venkatjampani]

@ravindras bro don’t quit. This is temporary hiccups . Members like you should provide more constructive points and criticisms to party 

[AbbaiG]

Dont quit. Give inputs from time to time.