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Political Analyst Jyothsna Report On AP Elections


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1 minute ago, mannam said:

గెలుపుకెప్పుడూ ఒక్క కారణముండదు. చాలా అంశాలు మిళితమై, ప్రతి చిన్న అంశం కూడా ఎంతో కొంత ప్రభావం చూపి ఎక్కువ పాజిటివ్ లు ఉన్న పార్టీ గెలుస్తుంది. 

1999 lo cbn craze lo peaks lo undi uncle...1. NTR ni side chesi TDP ki ekkda craze down avvakundaa central lo chakram thippi..cbn is not king..he is real king maker ane craze create chesukunnadu... 2. appatlo jarigina surprise inspection lu and spot lo employees meeda decision making lo youth lo oka role model gaa maaraadu and daily front page mottam cbn gurinche.... opposition ki news lo ki raavataaniki chance kudaa ivvalaa... 3. party loyal leaders ne kaakundaa party ki funding chese business peoples ki seat lu ichi financial gaa party ni baagaa strong chesaadu.... 4. International projects state ki techi cbn is national level lo identify ayyadu....ilaa chaalaa help ayyayi victory ki....edo deepam okkate tdp deepam nilabettindi....ladies katta kattukoni vote lu vesi single hand tho gelipincharu anedi correct kaadu....

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Just now, uma said:

1999 lo cbn craze lo peaks lo undi uncle...1. NTR ni side chesi TDP ki ekkda craze down avvakundaa central lo chakram thippi..cbn is not king..he is real king maker ane craze create chesukunnadu... 2. appatlo jarigina surprise inspection lu and spot lo employees meeda decision making lo youth lo oka role model gaa maaraadu and daily front page mottam cbn gurinche.... opposition ki news lo ki raavataaniki chance kudaa ivvalaa... 3. party loyal leaders ne kaakundaa party ki funding chese business peoples ki seat lu ichi financial gaa party ni baagaa strong chesaadu.... 4. International projects state ki techi cbn is national level lo identify ayyadu....ilaa chaalaa help ayyayi victory ki....edo deepam okkate tdp deepam nilabettindi....ladies katta kattukoni vote lu vesi single hand tho gelipincharu anedi correct kaadu....

అలా అని కూడా నేననటం లేదు. కానీ మహిళా ఓట్లు చాలా ఎక్కువగా పడ్డాయి అప్పట్లో. 

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1999 election bjp to pothu kooda baga help chesindi, kargil war to bjp ki sympathy vachindi dani to sail avvatam nuetral lo kooda manchi benifit vachindi. same time mana vadu 96,97 lo central lo chakram tippi pm ni decide cehyatam, appudu state lo babu peru motha mogindi. hitech city, roads veyatam, prajala vaddaku palana, govt emp's ni work cheyinchatam, cong galla kummu latalu, ys lanti valla meeda bad opinion undatam, varshalu padatam  anni kalisi vachayii. but 2002 nundi fortune kasta turn ayyi anntiki dooram ayyaru 2014 daka.

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1 minute ago, mannam said:

అవును, గ్యాస్ స్టవ్ మరియు ఒక సిలిండర్ అన్నట్టు గుర్తు. 

appativaraku....gas connection raavali ante...apply chesukunnaka gas company vaadi istam.....daily vaadi chuttu thirugutha unte eppudo kanikarinchevaadu.... idhi correct kaadu ani.... deepak scheme petti....gas connection ladies peru meeda every ward or village lo meeting lu petti akkade ichesaadu.....oka stove...oka cylinder and regulator.... also gas company laki target lu pettadu..compulsary gaa inni connections ee scheme kinda ladies ki ivvalsinde ani...appativaraku katte poyyi tho kallu mantalu latho kannellu pettukunna ladies ki gas meeda vanta lo unna soukhyam telisi cbn zindabad annaru.... deeniki thodu ladies ni dwakra groups lo join chesi independent gaa money earn cheyyatam nerpinchadu....ee vidham gaa 1999 lo ladies supported cbn....

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7 minutes ago, Bollu said:

1999 election bjp to pothu kooda baga help chesindi, kargil war to bjp ki sympathy vachindi dani to sail avvatam nuetral lo kooda manchi benifit vachindi. same time mana vadu 96,97 lo central lo chakram tippi pm ni decide cehyatam, appudu state lo babu peru motha mogindi. hitech city, roads veyatam, prajala vaddaku palana, govt emp's ni work cheyinchatam, cong galla kummu latalu, ys lanti valla meeda bad opinion undatam, varshalu padatam  anni kalisi vachayii. but 2002 nundi fortune kasta turn ayyi anntiki dooram ayyaru 2014 daka.

@Narendra1, @Venu_NTR... comment please...

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1 minute ago, Venu_NTR said:

Uncle deepam padhakam was instant hit and one of the main reason behind CBN success in 99 ... I still stand by my word...

 

Sare iyyanni vaddu kani uncle... Repu CBN gelisthe... Credit goes to whom ?

one and only CBN..... one man show....I can proudly say....today TDP is live only because of CBN...we can remove NTR photo if required...

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1 minute ago, Narendra1 said:

lol.. AP janaaniki Dev criteria lo vote vesey maturity ekkada edchindi.. 99 lo aa deepam pathakam laanti semi welfare scheme helped a lot.. 04, 09, 14, 19 kooda welfare schemes tho gelavadamey.. Dev Ap lo chelladu hence proved 

mee thaman dappulu music meede gaa continue...99 lo one of main reason cbn's visionary along your deepam and other schemes...appudu vision 2020 ni define chesindi...

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1 minute ago, uma said:

one and only CBN..... one man show....I can proudly say....today TDP is live only because of CBN...we can remove NTR photo if required...

10 years opposition ki reason teliyadaaa? sannaasi janaaniki welfare prime ani ee term lo na bhu na bha chesaadu.. gelavaali actually.. odipotey RIP AP 

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3 minutes ago, uma said:

one and only CBN..... one man show....I can proudly say....today TDP is live only because of CBN...we can remove NTR photo if required...

CBN emanna rambha Ravali ah uncle... Janalu CBN ni choosthu votes veyadaniki...choosedhi CBN works ne kada...

Chesina works lo edhi gelupu ki Karanam avuddi anedhi question ...first major thing edhi...

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https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/states/story/19991025-andhra-pradesh-elections-chandrababu-naidu-sweeps-polls-but-reforms-yet-to-pay-off-781692-1999-10-25

Andhra Pradesh elections: Chandrababu Naidu sweeps polls, but reforms yet to pay off

Naidu's swept the polls. But he can't escape the fact that his reforms haven't paid off. As yet.

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Amarnath K Menon
October 25, 1999
ISSUE DATE: October 25, 1999
UPDATED: January 25, 2013 18:17 IST
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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In Hyderabad, A joke doing the rounds these days is that Nara Chandrababu Naidu has solved the Y2K problem. In leading his Telugu Desam Party (TDP) to triumph in the last election before 2000, he has become the first economic reformer to actually win a mandate. Consider the gloomy past:
  • In 1994, P.V. Narasimha Rao projected the state elections in Andhra Pradesh as a referendum on reforms. The Congress got thrashed and, a year and a half later, lost the general election.
  • In 1997, the United Front (UF) government presented a budget that had the middle classes ecstatic. The next year, the UF was hammered at the hustings.
  • In 1999, Manmohan Singh and P. Chidambaram, at the vanguard of the new economy, both lost the Lok Sabha election.

Since Naidu has managed to buck the trend, the obvious question is - does this indicate a popular sanction for reforms? The answer is a very, very qualified yes.
 

artfull%20(2)_072412112711.jpgNaidu's ways: The CM projects a
At one level, the TDP-BJP victory -  together they have won 191 out of 293 assembly seats for which polls were held and 36 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats - is a triumph of good old arithmetic. Naidu benefited from Atal Bihari Vajpayee's charismatic appeal - state-specific opinion polls gave him a popularity rating of over 50 percent - and the incremental vote the BJP brought in.

In 1998, in a three-way contest, the BJPwon four Lok Sabha seats and 18 percent of the votes. This time it seemed to simply transfer its vote share to the TDP-led alliance. As frustrated Congress leaders pointed out, their party lost in 35 assembly constituencies by less than 5,000 votes.

Having said that, it must be pointed out that the opinion polls gave the Naidu Government a high rating too. As the chief minister emphasises, he has won a vote for his governance because "women and youth have backed us in a big way".

Indeed, women are a winning constituency in the state. In 1994, N.T. Rama Rao or NTR, Naidu's late father-in-law, swept 216 of the 294 assembly constituencies because he promised prohibition, a pledge that worked magic with rural women. After deposing NTR in 1995, Naidu quickly moved towards revoking prohibition. This seemed to alienate him from the female vote - and he has had to work hard to reclaim it.

 
Action
  • Careful selection of candidates. TDP fielded 119 new faces and 33 women for state polls.
  • Wooed rural masses with populist measures like Janmabhoomi and Deepam LPG scheme.
  • Planned computer link between state secretariat and districts; reformed power sector.
  • Taken the high moral ground by deciding to keep out of the government at the Centre.

Naidu's entire election strategy has been four-pronged: personal image, careful selection of candidates, welfare measures tending towards populism and the promise that economic reforms will usher in a "swarna (golden) Andhra Pradesh".

For a non-film star and a staccato rather than dramatic speaker, the chief minister has acquired quite a persona. He is the "doer", the man "who works at least 18 hours a day", who "travels to the 22 districts outside Hyderabad seven to 10 times year".

Personal attacks on him - Congress spokesmen K. Rosaiah, G.M.K. Naidu and Puli Veeranna were assigned the task - failed to wash. As Rosaiah admits, "We misjudged the mood because anti-incumbency was not as strong as we had expected." Confused signals didn't help. Initially Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy, the state Congress president, spoke of abolishing the Janmabhoomi rural welfare programme.

Eventually, Naidu's brainchild got incorporated into the Congress manifesto under another name, "Gram Swaraj" (village emancipation). The Deepam cooking gas scheme, which Naidu used to convince rural housewives that he was rescuing them from fossil fuels, was coopted as the Indira Kalyan programme. Clearly, the electorate preferred the original to the copycat.

When it came to choosing candidates, Naidu, the undisputed leader of the TDP, had a free hand. He deployed this judiciously, fielding 119 new faces for the assembly election; 73 won. The Congress, headed by a woman, put up 27 female candidates for the state election. The TDP responded with 33. Of them 21 won.

 

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Whether it was industrialist T.G. Venkatesh (now MLA from Kurnool) or journalist K. Srinivas (now MP from Anantpur) Naidu gambled with fresh candidates. K. Vijaya Rama Rao, former director of the Central Bureau of Investigation, also took the plunge and defeated the powerful P. Janardhan Reddy, labour minister in a former Congress government, in Khairatabad. Rao is now the roads and buildings minister. His counterpart in women's welfare is S. Saraswathi, another first-term MLA.

Of course, the TDP also played the traditional role of any ruling party in fielding 20 candidates with an allegedly criminal background. Naidu chose not to sack the notorious K. Sivaprasada Rao, a minister whose residence-cumnursing home in Narasaraopet was shattered after bombs supposedly meant for use during polls went off accidentally. The explosion killed four people, including an independent candidate.

The irony is that the Congress targeted Naidu's strengths rather than his weaknesses. Charges of personal corruption that the opposition levelled against the chief minister were never an issue; the mess in the state's finances was. The balance sheet tells its own story.

In 1993-94, the Andhra Pradesh government had a surplus of Rs 454 crore. By 1997-98, this had changed to a deficit of Rs 8,016 crore. In four years, Naidu has rendered the state bankrupt as it were.

Reaction
  • 73 of the first-timers got elected while 21 of the women candidates made it to the Assembly.
  • Andhra Pradesh is up to its neck in debt and the cheap rice scheme may have to be pruned.
  • Bureaucracy unhappy with transparency plans; power sector reforms in a muddle.
  • Prevented TDP MPs from becoming powercentres. Is angling for more funds for the state.

The state government is also heavily indebted. Borrowings from international financial institutions has raised debt from Rs 12,500 crore in 1994 to Rs 22,000 crore now.

As Rosaiah stresses, "Debt servicing alone will take away Rs 4,000 crore every year." C. Hanumantha Rao, former member of the Planning Commission, outlines a tough prescription, "The immediate task is to raise internal revenues. The state needs a growth rate of 6.5-7 percent and higher in the coming years if we have to keep pace with the rest of of the country."

Hanumantha Rao says all this calls for "significant investment in infrastructure, particularly rural infrastructure, along with efforts to attract private sector investment". So Naidu will have to raise taxes, increase power and transport tariffs and cut subsidies.

The cheap rice scheme - the state spends Rs 1,100 crore annually to supply rice to 11.3 million families below the poverty line, a figure disputed by some in the government itself - is under threat. So is, ironically, the Deepam scheme, which promises a grant of Rs 1,000 for a stove and the first LPG cylinder. Naidu wants to cover 3.5 million homes by March 2000. The bill? Rs 350 crore.

Naidu's techno-savvy approach has made him the favourite of the information technology (IT) industry, with everybody from Microsoft to Oracle to Baan Infotech investing in Andhra Pradesh.

Next month, American IT company CEOs are attending the Bangalore IT.com exhibition. Richard Celeste, the US ambassador, is taking them across to Hyderabad as well, with, Naidu hopes, proposals for more projects.
 

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Convincing the locals has proved more difficult. Naidu conceived the Andhra Pradesh State Wide Area Network (APSWAN) as a link between the state secretariat and the district headquarters and to facilitate daily video conferences with district collectors.

APSWAN was to be launched in July but the Election Commission's code of conduct came in the way. While its birth is certain, the Andhra Pradesh Value Added Network (APVAN) is in jeopardy. The bureaucracy is up in arms as it feels APVAN will allow the citizen to access information and perform tasks directly, bypassing the babus.

The much-heralded power sector reforms are also in a muddle. A year ago, Naidu unbundled the state electricity board into separate power generation and transmission corporations. The project is in the ICU and the loss-making power Modies now want a subsidy of Rs 2,074 crore from the Government.

Naidu inherited a well-organised cadre network from NTR, a network that he himself had created for his father-in-law. This achievement is potentially an albatross around Naidu's neck. Whether it is in the development of new roads - in urban or rural locations - or a variety of welfare programmes, Naidu has created a contractor class that is coterminus with his party machinery. In this election, the handsome face outshone the dark underbelly. Next time Naidu would do well to leave nothing to chance.

The crux of the matter is that Naidu needs money, and needs it desperately. Otherwise his dreams -  short-term, long-term, mediumterm, whatever - will never be fulfilled. No wonder he is looking to his renewed clout in Delhi - with 29 MPs, the TDP is Vajpayee's most powerful ally - to bail him out.

By refusing to join the ministry, Naidu has achieved two things. For a start, he has scotched the hopes of those MPs who wanted to become mini-power centres in Delhi. Ever the artful dodger he says, "Politics in a dynamic state keeps changing, based on emerging issues and situations."

In simple English, Naidu means that he will review his decision after the panchayat elections due in six months. If his control at the grassroots is complete, he may feel confident enough to allow his men into the Union Cabinet.

What Naidu has also done is announced to the prime minister that he is the sole bargainer from his state - and a bargainer who has a long wishlist ready.

 

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3 minutes ago, Narendra1 said:

10 years opposition ki reason teliyadaaa? sannaasi janaaniki welfare prime ani ee term lo na bhu na bha chesaadu.. gelavaali actually.. odipotey RIP AP 

election ayna next day nundi nenu antundi idhe..vella kosam cbn enduku antha strain avvatam ani...they really donot deserve quality service...

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1 minute ago, uma said:

mee thaman dappulu music meede gaa continue...99 lo one of main reason cbn's visionary along your deepam and other schemes...appudu vision 2020 ni define chesindi...

vision 2020 ... 2004 ki peaks lo vaadaadu.. Vajpayee govt ni use chesukoni high ways etc infrastructure develped.. But people memu matti roads meeda ayinaa pothaam maaku enti aney flow lo ki poyaaru.. welfare welfare.. people dont want develpment.. aa YS XX gaadu brshtu pattinchaduley janaanni 

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4 minutes ago, Chandasasanudu said:

ade vision aithey 2004 lo enduku poyadu....apatiki vision marinda

vision like adithya 369 movie...fdfs chusinollu juttu peekkunnaru concept ardam kaada..... ippudu adhe movie...classic..epic....

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9 minutes ago, Narendra1 said:

lol.. AP janaaniki Dev criteria lo vote vesey maturity ekkada edchindi.. 99 lo aa deepam pathakam laanti semi welfare scheme helped a lot.. 04, 09, 14, 19 kooda welfare schemes tho gelavadamey.. Dev Ap lo chelladu hence proved 

అలా అని అసలు అభివృద్ధి చెయ్యకపోతే వెయ్యరుగా. చంద్రబాబు అంటే బై డీఫాల్ట్ అభివృద్ది చేస్తాడు చెయ్యాలి చెయ్యాల్సిందే అనేది కొందరి అభిప్రాయం. కానీ అదొక్కటే ఆయన గెలుపుకు సరిపోదు. అందుకే ఈ పధకాలన్నీ. ఇకపోతే వైఎస్సార్ మీద ఆ నమ్మకం కానీ, ఆకాంక్ష కానీ లేదు. కాబట్టి వాళ్ళు అభివృద్ది చెయ్యకపోయినా గెలిపించారు. 

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5 minutes ago, Venu_NTR said:

CBN emanna rambha Ravali ah uncle... Janalu CBN ni choosthu votes veyadaniki...choosedhi CBN works ne kada...

Chesina works lo edhi gelupu ki Karanam avuddi anedhi question ...first major thing edhi...

1. Polavaram...2 Amaravathi....3. Water schemes.....4. Industrial development 5. Old age pensions...6. Raithu runamaafi.....lost lo bottu ..kaatuka....simple gaa dabbulu dobbi intlo pettukoni...vote ki dabbulu kosam wait chesaaru chaalaa chotla.........

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deepam schem played 10% role in 99 election ani na feeling, elections mundala adi just 2-3 months ivvatam valla some of them got benefited. gurthu ledu 1000-1500 entho kattamu initial ga connection ki. but dani valle vesaru anatam matram not correct.

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3 minutes ago, uma said:

election ayna next day nundi nenu antundi idhe..vella kosam cbn enduku antha strain avvatam ani...they really donot deserve quality service...

Kharma theory not working for CBN.. He is definitely Kaaranajanmudu for AP. 

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2 minutes ago, Bollu said:

deepam schem played 10% role in 99 election ani na feeling, elections mundala adi just 2-3 months ivvatam valla some of them got benefited. gurthu ledu 1000-1500 entho kattamu initial ga connection ki. but dani valle vesaru anatam matram not correct.

same feeling here....1200 anukuntaa.....appativaraku some 2k entho undedi ...main ...time ki ichevallu kaadu.... some times it took around 1yr...

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Just now, Narendra1 said:

Kharma theory not working for CBN.. He is definitely Kaaranajanmudu for AP. 

CBN APki eppudo runa padi unnadu..... Bethaaludi story laaga katha cheppinantha varaku janaalu bujum meeda undatam...katha aypogaane chettu ekki koorchovatam...

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2 minutes ago, uma said:

 same feeling here....1200 anukuntaa.....appativaraku some 2k entho undedi ...main ...time ki ichevallu kaadu.... some times it took around 1yr...

pina india today article lo okka flaw kooda ledu.  dummethhi poyatainki appudu media antahga spread avva ledu, politics kooda hundagane nadichayi. e ysr, a tv9 , kcr modalu ettaka politics cheyatam prathi danni controversy chesaru. leader with clean image to gelichadu with only development to second time. ade last time in AP with only development works to gelavatam.

Action
Careful selection of candidates. TDP fielded 119 new faces and 33 women for state polls. Wooed rural masses with populist measures like Janmabhoomi and Deepam LPG scheme.  Planned computer link between state secretariat and districts; reformed power sector.  Taken the high moral ground by deciding to keep out of the government at the Centre.
 

 

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4 minutes ago, Bollu said:

deepam schem played 10% role in 99 election ani na feeling, elections mundala adi just 2-3 months ivvatam valla some of them got benefited. gurthu ledu 1000-1500 entho kattamu initial ga connection ki. but dani valle vesaru anatam matram not correct.

very minimal amount (below 1000)  ki aa rojullo stove with cylinder .. It wasn't small thing.. Kattela poyyilu transformation to gas stoves happened in that period.. 

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1 minute ago, Narendra1 said:

very minimal amount (below 1000)  ki aa rojullo stove with cylinder .. It wasn't small thing.. Kattela poyyilu transformation to gas stoves happened in that period.. 

ledu uncle, it is more than that. nenu swayam ga chusanu adi, maku appti varuku gas ledu. andaru appudu gober gas ani vade vallu village lo e cylinder conenction leka. chala mandi antha dabba ani tesukoledu, kontha mandi pothe poyindi ani tesukunnaru. that happened through dwacrs groups. 

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2 minutes ago, Narendra1 said:

very minimal amount (below 1000)  ki aa rojullo stove with cylinder .. It wasn't small thing.. Kattela poyyilu transformation to gas stoves happened in that period.. 

finally what I menat to say....villages lo deepam....educates and youth lo developement.....business section lo industrialization ...ilaa anni sections ki kavalsina schemes valana 99 lo cbn ki victory vachindi..... agree? or still you believe Deepam only helped?

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 @uma meeru konni vishayalu ignore chestunnaru.... 

1. Poor ladies voted for CBN in 99 due to deepam, dwakra schemes

2. Middle class ladies voted with a hope that their educated kids will get IT jobs in Hyd if CBN retains power 

3. Upper class ladies lo prajala vaddaku paalana, mukhya mantri the mukha mukhi, dail your CM, surprise inspections and dismissals on site. Ilantivi baaga attract Chesayi. Bill gates, Bill Clinton lanti vallani Hyd tevatam kuda  catalyst ga act chesindi

2004 lo farmers issues, ignoring farmer distress and current charges hike created a huge dent. 

 

50% voting unna ladies ni takkuva anchana eyyoddu. Current lady batch is not the sect of our grand mothers where they only voted to what husband says. 

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