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TDP win or lose....reasons


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3 minutes ago, Sree Ram said:

Vallu ala cheppaka .. local candidates maaku vaddu .. MP ki matram maaku veyyandi chalu antara endi :D TDP candidates eppati nuncho MLA or Ex MLA batch .. ante monnati varaku vallu  ee party lo unna local kaaps antha vallake vote vesaru .. so valla valla cross voting jaragochu .. JSP ki vesevadu .. rendu votes JSP ke vestharu.. unless local TDP candidate non-kaap and MP candidate Kaap aithe thappa :) 

sadaranam ga aithe gelusthamu ani nammakam leni candidates naku matram veyandi mp's ki me istam ani cheputaru kada. east/west/vizag lo aithe sc voting peddaga padi undadu manaki, manam peddaga vallani pattinchukonnattu kanaravatam ledu. jagan gadu kapu reservations meeda comment chesaka peddaga evaru vesi undaru. raju la voting also more important, vallu evariki vesaro voting ani emina idea unda?.

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124+ ☺️

Pros:

pure Cbn hardwork, hardwork always payoff, idi గెలిస్తే, టిడిపి 83 tharvatha గెలిచిన most memorable election annatte against all odds jagga kcr n modi.. 

 

Cons: 

Depth of one chance to jagga.. 

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4 minutes ago, Bollu said:

sadaranam ga aithe gelusthamu ani nammakam leni candidates naku matram veyandi mp's ki me istam ani cheputaru kada. east/west/vizag lo aithe sc voting peddaga padi undadu manaki, manam peddaga vallani pattinchukonnattu kanaravatam ledu. jagan gadu kapu reservations meeda comment chesaka peddaga evaru vesi undaru. raju la voting also more important, vallu evariki vesaro voting ani emina idea unda?.

SC ladies padathayi eesari .. at least cheppatam aithe ala chepparu anta konni chotla .. nijam ga paddayoo ledoo aa pi vadike theliyali :)  

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9 minutes ago, Bollu said:

sadaranam ga aithe gelusthamu ani nammakam leni candidates naku matram veyandi mp's ki me istam ani cheputaru kada. east/west/vizag lo aithe sc voting peddaga padi undadu manaki, manam peddaga vallani pattinchukonnattu kanaravatam ledu. jagan gadu kapu reservations meeda comment chesaka peddaga evaru vesi undaru. raju la voting also more important, vallu evariki vesaro voting ani emina idea unda?.

Vizag lo SC voting pedda undadu le...only east lo Chala ekkuva

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Nenu ninnativaraku tough fight and TDP sure shot koduthundi anukonna but now I doubt as per recent interactions with many ppl in my area 

Positives - CBN & his experience 

                    Welfareschemes

                    Developments ( somewat )

Negatives 

                  Underestimating jansena effect

                   Okka chance sentiment 

                    Credibility factor - Village voters incline towards ysrcp even after taking PK

                     Social media effect a lot 

                      Last minute schemes may not work 

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8 minutes ago, Sree Ram said:

SC ladies padathayi eesari .. at least cheppatam aithe ala chepparu anta konni chotla .. nijam ga paddayoo ledoo aa pi vadike theliyali :)  

Ekkuva hopes pettuko vaddu bro ee batch meeda almost 10 different ppl nunchi vinna Money teesukoni kooda atu guddaru ani 

 

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Krishna and Guntur lo kaapu votes chilatam valla TDP ki plus ... Ranga murder taruvata Krishna and Guntur lo kaapulu eppudu 30-35% Kanna ekkuva votes TDP ki padaledu padavu kuda...

best Example 2009 PRP vunnappudu TDP : 8, Cong : 6, PRP : 2 

VIJ East - 1000,Pedana - 1190,Tiruvuru-250,Penamaluru-177 votes tho TDP odipoyindi....

Krishna and Guntur Inka cheppali ante Prakasam and Nellore kuda manaki emi Bokka vundadu....anta YCP ke...

Mana votes ekkuva chiledi Godavari Districts lo adi kuda two sides vuntundi....Pawan valla YCP ki kuda 2-3 seats results tarumaru avutundi.... Godavari districts lo manaki 6-8 seats tayggina no problem Kurnool Cover chestundi....

TDP has 90% chances to Win. 

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Positives :

1) Pasupu Kunkuma (45%)

2) Olg age pensions (25%)

3) Annadatha Sukhibava/Amaravathi/Polavaram/Anna Canteens/Irrigation Projects/Development/Pro incumbency (30-32%%)

4) > Muslim Vote share than in 2014 ( I am Expecting Y~65/T~32-35/J~3-5 ) Last time numbers could be 85-90/10-15 (3-5%)

 

 

DWACRA valla labdhi pondhina Vallu 95Lakh women ... Andulo vote esina vallu 80Lakhs undachu ... Etu vanti political allegiance lekunda prati election ki swing ayye neutral votes min 25 Lakhs untayi ... andulo 65% Def gaa TDP ki paduntayi .. 60% eskunna ... TDP Will start with an advantage of 3K votes per constituency.. Add to it Bulk family voting (ladies influence valla kani, anni pathakala valla labdhi pondina families kaani)

Musalolla voting kuda Max TDP ne lead lo untadi ani expecting

 

PRP got 30-31% in East , 28% in Vizag , 25% in west... East Vizag lo TDP was 3rd behind PRP ... Majority of TDP guys are pissed off because they are Expecting same performance from JS which could dent TDPs chances .... But Guys the combined average Kapu population(incl its subcastes) is 15-17% from VZG to WG.

I believe PRP polled Max 70% of Kapu votes , which means East-Vizag lo total population lo 18-20% other caste votes paddai ... PRP performance lo 50% kuda undadhu JS di as PRP left a bad precedent to JS ... Other castes youth lo minor % votes tappa I don't see JS getting votes from communities other than KAPU and its sub castes....Infact PRP ki padina Kapu voting lo 50-60% JS Ki padina Extra ordinary GA perform chesinatte .. TDP traditional vote bank Aina BCs Ni kuda cheelcha galgindi PRP , where as SCs Minorities solidly backed Congress.

 

More than that we can afford to lose 20 Seats (TDP+BJP+Verma) still can reach magic figure

Last time poina vaatilo Geliche seats kuda untaayi kada.

I don't see TDP getting Below 90.

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Guest Urban Legend

Cons:

1.Too much negative propaganda nd fake news spread by opposition. Last few months varaku okka issue ni kuda effective ga counter cheyyaledhu.

2. Lazy mlas

Last lo ah ads tappa chesindhi cheppukundhi ekkada ?

Chudali last overs power hitting koncham ina help indha ledha ani ..orelse discussion waste

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34 minutes ago, raghu6 said:

Nenu ninnativaraku tough fight and TDP sure shot koduthundi anukonna but now I doubt as per recent interactions with many ppl in my area 

Positives - CBN & his experience 

                    Welfareschemes

                    Developments ( somewat )

Negatives 

                  Underestimating jansena effect

                   Okka chance sentiment 

                    Credibility factor - Village voters incline towards ysrcp even after taking PK

                     Social media effect a lot 

                      Last minute schemes may not work 

EY area, Entha మందిని అడిగారు, ఎటు వైపు మొగ్గు vundi, మీ doubt ki reasons cheppandi.. 

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Another Observation:

EC website lo Update aina Numbers Prakaram 5'PM ki Update aina Figures and Final Closing EC figures ki difference unna Top 3 Districts

1) Guntur - 21%

2) Krishna - 17%

3) Vizag - 16.5%

 

Capital Region Aina K-G belt ... State lo Highest Urban voting unna Vzg Dt lo Eve 5 Tarvatha nunchi anthala Jaggadni CM cheddamani Poonukuni Janaalu Particular GA ladies / Old age ppl vote vesaarani Nenaithe anukovatledu.

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1 minute ago, ashok9999 said:

Another Observation:

EC website lo Update aina Numbers Prakaram 5'PM ki Update aina Figures and Final Closing EC figures ki difference unna Top 3 Districts

1) Guntur - 21%

2) Krishna - 17%

3) Vizag - 16.5%

 

Capital Region Aina K-G belt ... State lo Highest Urban voting unna Vzg Dt lo Eve 5 Tarvatha nunchi anthala Jaggadni CM cheddamani Poonukuni Janaalu Particular GA ladies / Old age ppl vote vesaarani Nenaithe anukovatledu.

Are sure above numbers are correct? Can you share remaining districts?

calling @RamaSiddhu J to confirm % after 5 PM

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1 hour ago, Chandasasanudu said:

basic ga YSRCP ki enduku vote veyali ane point ledu strong ga janallo....okka chance nijanga entha undo theliadhu...and ysr image only hardcores ki....like NTR to tdp....but vallu kampu cheyatam lo success ayyaru

PK di oka confusion...

Okka chance thing is a good marketing strategy. But I think its targetted at PK votes than CBN. PK ki first time chance iddham le ani alochinche vallu, ee campaign dvaara jagan ki vestharani... CHiru ki kooda 2009 lo challa mandhi first time ani chance ichaaru

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12 minutes ago, ramntr said:

Entha మందిని అడిగారు, ఎటు వైపు మొగ్గు vundi, మీ doubt ki reasons cheppandi.. 

Direct  6 ppl nd Nenu oka bank ki velthe

Ladies lo oka ame vere vallaku chepthundi " ee mundalu chandrababu dabbu tini Jagan ki vote vesaru ani " 

Next ma relatives chepthundi examples nd ma villages lo majority taggutundi ani ma valle chepthunnaru and Even tough ani 

Idi West Godavari lo gopalapuram constituency   & West Godavari lo konni constituency lo alane edichinattu vunnayi 

Idi nenu last one week ground lo vundi vintundi motham labour atu guddesaru ani 

Ikkada vunnadi vere district lo vundalani ledu 

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1 hour ago, Chandasasanudu said:

repu result vachaka....verdict base chesukoni evariki vallu reasons seputharu....conclusions based on results 100 seppavachu....elections aipoyai...ippudu vache nashtam ledu kabatti honest ga seppandi

TDP has 75% chances to win (numbers mathram veyakandi 110, 130 ani)...just mee gut feeling seppandi...

Positives

Female, Female, Female, Female voting (Pasupu Kunkam)

Old age pensions, Handicapped pensions etc

whether 10%, 20% or 30%, CBN has initiated development...if jagan comes...ego kosam aina motham marchesthadu and we may have to start again from zero ane feeling undi konthamandilo

Water irrigation projects, results first time choosaru farmers...ademanna konchem positive avachu

lose ki reasons

 

Kaps votes 

welfare schemes: ivi nijanga work avuthaya....oka PK supporter....anna canteens valla thaguboth moguds intiki rakunda akakda thini vachi podukuntunnaru....kapuralu nasanam cehshtunnaru...so evadi version vaadidi...and rapthadu lanti chota dwacra money ysrcp ki fund ga itcharu antey...eerojullo idi evadi sommu ane feeling undi..so entha matuku work avuthayo choodali.....(KCR gelavatam valla..main raithu bandh anedi fix ayyaru...so manollu ade feeling lo unnaru.....and jayalaitha kooda oka example)

employees.....review meetings kanna...dharma poratam lo teachers and students ni sava dobbaru....idi baaga negative undi

same KCR stratagies applied....so antha effective ga unnaya leda annadi choodali

 

Loosing chance.. Only EVM Machines

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7 minutes ago, raghu6 said:

Direct  6 ppl nd Nenu oka bank ki velthe

Ladies lo oka ame vere vallaku chepthundi " ee mundalu chandrababu dabbu tini Jagan ki vote vesaru ani " 

Next ma relatives chepthundi examples nd ma villages lo majority taggutundi ani ma valle chepthunnaru and Even tough ani 

Idi West Godavari lo gopalapuram constituency   & West Godavari lo konni constituency lo alane edichinattu vunnayi 

Idi nenu last one week ground lo vundi vintundi motham labour atu guddesaru ani 

Ikkada vunnadi vere district lo vundalani ledu 

గోపాలపురం prediction enti before polls... 

One thing is clear, tough అయితే vundadu, evarikochina good majority vasthadi, అది టిడిపి ke అని నేను anukuntunna ladies n musalolla lo aa thinnam అనే sentiment గట్టిగా వుంది, లేని వాళ్లు కూడా వున్నారు but less % అని నా feeling.. Tough అనేది artificial ga create చేసింది నా feeling of India.. 

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CBN strategical mistakes baaga unnai....ivanni female voting cover cheshtundi ani hoping ekkuva....

party  ni complete ga vadilesadu till last minute....entha sepataki high level stratagies like cornering bjp lantivi thappa political ga correct ga play cheyala

implementing kcr stratagies: pasupu kunkama depositing in last minute like raithu bandh (which i personally hate but thappav), concentrating more on KCR

Socail media negligence and not contrllong tv media

losing muslim vote....cbn ki ardham kaadu ani kaadu...but for short term gains he is losing some loyal cadre

2004 nunchi peddaga nerchukundi ledu...entha development chesina....people give damn abt that....naaku entha ani thappa.....good tg elections mundhu avatam valla kaneesam aa pasupu kunkum anna vadiladu....

 

janalaki nijanaga dev and daani benifit ardham avi savatla...eeroju tg lo revenue records sarigga levu ani edushtunnaru....cbn 2014 lo power loki raganu motham revenue records online chesesadu....one of the biggest achievement gaani...deenini evadu recogniye cheyadu

 

Amaravathi selection> GNT, AMARavathi, vja with gananvaram in 10 years will be bigger than hyd...idedo comedy ga vesedi kaadu...just okasari ellinappudu belt motham visit cheyandi...master plan amazing ga undi....and hyd lantivi kattataniki 100 years akkarla ani prove cheyagalam in 10 years but very few understand that..completely failed in translating that

 

hudhud ..amazing work...okkadaki gurthu ledu ipppudu and tharvatha cyclones ekkada human loss lekunda chesadu....with proper precuations....media never appreciated and we did not promote it well

countering PK and jagan was very bad.....pk meeda lite ga undatam pedda debba esindi....kaps leaders ni retain chesina....uth antha poyaru...allaki 5% reservation itchina...corporations pettina no use....protect ur vote bank and try to lure the leaders from other banks..like pulling pk in 2014..adi cheyala and BCs ni konchem dhooram chesukunnam....but ysrcp allaki saviour laa kanipinchaka inka manatho unnaru....ledu antey motham jump kottevalu

cbn political strength 90s tho aagipoindi emo ani anipisthundi.....radha ni party loki theesukunnaru but star campaigner la use chesi untey benifit ayyedi...aadu partyloki vachadu ani evaraki peddaga theliadhu emo.....kaps enthaina ranga ki more affliated that mega politically....(atleast krishna lo)

 

 

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7 minutes ago, gnk@vja said:

Oka chinna question

Last time ycp ki aprox entha % kaps votes paddayo cheppagalara ?

we only make assumptions😂

naa guess aithey 50% esi untaru....puran congress or bjp lo unna manaollu konthamandi etta aa parties ki veyaro...kaps same...pk support sesina konthamandi ysrcpke vesaru

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5 minutes ago, Chandasasanudu said:

CBN strategical mistakes baaga unnai....ivanni female voting cover cheshtundi ani hoping ekkuva....

party  ni complete ga vadilesadu till last minute....entha sepataki high level stratagies like cornering bjp lantivi thappa political ga correct ga play cheyala

implementing kcr stratagies: pasupu kunkama depositing in last minute like raithu bandh (which i personally hate but thappav), concentrating more on KCR

Socail media negligence and not contrllong tv media

losing muslim vote....cbn ki ardham kaadu ani kaadu...but for short term gains he is losing some loyal cadre

2004 nunchi peddaga nerchukundi ledu...entha development chesina....people give damn abt that....naaku entha ani thappa.....good tg elections mundhu avatam valla kaneesam aa pasupu kunkum anna vadiladu....

 

janalaki nijanaga dev and daani benifit ardham avi savatla...eeroju tg lo revenue records sarigga levu ani edushtunnaru....cbn 2014 lo power loki raganu motham revenue records online chesesadu....one of the biggest achievement gaani...deenini evadu recogniye cheyadu

 

Amaravathi selection> GNT, AMARavathi, vja with gananvaram in 10 years will be bigger than hyd...idedo comedy ga vesedi kaadu...just okasari ellinappudu belt motham visit cheyandi...master plan amazing ga undi....and hyd lantivi kattataniki 100 years akkarla ani prove cheyagalam in 10 years but very few understand that..completely failed in translating that

 

hudhud ..amazing work...okkadaki gurthu ledu ipppudu and tharvatha cyclones ekkada human loss lekunda chesadu....with proper precuations....media never appreciated and we did not promote it well

countering PK and jagan was very bad.....pk meeda lite ga undatam pedda debba esindi....kaps leaders ni retain chesina....uth antha poyaru...allaki 5% reservation itchina...corporations pettina no use....protect ur vote bank and try to lure the leaders from other banks..like pulling pk in 2014..adi cheyala and BCs ni konchem dhooram chesukunnam....but ysrcp allaki saviour laa kanipinchaka inka manatho unnaru....ledu antey motham jump kottevalu

cbn political strength 90s tho aagipoindi emo ani anipisthundi.....radha ni party loki theesukunnaru but star campaigner la use chesi untey benifit ayyedi...aadu partyloki vachadu ani evaraki peddaga theliadhu emo.....kaps enthaina ranga ki more affliated that mega politically....(atleast krishna lo)

 

 

Agree అన్ని points, but my only reason for this is Cbn ఒక్కడే అన్ని cheyyalanukotam, but following old methods, Lokesh vunnadu but no use party param ga, dobbakandi he may be successful as a minister, opposition massive online negative campaign cheyyatam chusaka kuda no response ante ela.... 

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Chandasasanudu uncle,

aayana entha chesina janalu ki ekkatam ledu, for eg: Eodb lo no1, 11 lac houses with good amenities, water irrigation projects, bhudhar, e-pragathi, rtgs, 2500 km cc roads, anna canteens, godavari penna interlinking this is good especially for guntur, prakasam farmers, chinthalapudi is good for godavari & krishna ditricts, uss benifit gor eg&vizag people, vamsadhara & nagavali is for srikakulam. ivi emi janalaku ekkatam ledu for some reason.  seems they are not receiving development from us.

 asalu e sector tesukonna we are in no1 position. capitol kanuka elevate cehsthe migatha distrcit vallaki kadupu mantaga untundi emi cheyagalam. repu jagan vachina vaadu kooda 5 years kanna nila bettukoledu le with huge aspiration to. 

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