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NDTV Analysis on Telangana Elections


RKumar

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In Telangana, A 2 Per Cent Swing Could Be Key: Prannoy Roy's Analysis

In Telangana, incumbent Chief Minister KCR's TRS party faces a challenge from the Chandrababu Naidu's TDP and the Congress.

Telangana | Edited by Anindita Sanyal | Updated: December 04, 2018 01:06 IST

The Telangana Assembly election results will have ramifications for next year's national elections.

 
HYDERABAD: 

Telangana, India's youngest state, goes to polls next week following a tight contest. Data shows the outcome may depend on just a 2 per cent vote swing. The Congress and Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party have teamed up to take on Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao, who is seeking a second term.

KCR, as Mr Rao is popularly known, had dissolved the state assembly eight months ahead of time to advance the elections. The BJP, which is trying to expand its footprint in the state, has hinted it was because of low confidence. The Chief Minister, they said, is not sure about making his pitch in the middle of a Congress-BJP battle next year.

The results will have ramifications for next year's national elections. A victory for the alliance will place Mr Naidu - a self-styled facilitator of a united opposition - at the forefront of the opposition politics. But in Telangana, he has shown himself as ready to take a backseat, yielding the majority of seats to Congress.

 

Mr Rao has pitched for a Third Front without the BJP or the Congress - a stance he is sticking to in the state elections.

A look at the Vidhan Sabha vs Lok Sabha election shows how the state voted in simultaneous elections in 2014. Data shows independents and smaller parties tend to do better in assembly elections.   

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In 2014 state elections, TRS crossed the halfway mark comfortably but the vote share was a close three-way split between the major parties.

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If the state votes in the same manner that it did in 2014, the new political tie-ups would mean a very close fight - with a 2% margin being key.

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The TRS has a stronger base in the northern part of the state, with the party's average margin of victory being as high as 20% in the 2014 elections.

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"Sub-nationalism" is expected to be a major factor in the election.

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Freebies and welfare scheme have also been a significant factor influencing the elections in the state.

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From pensions, free electricity, water taps to farm loan waiver- all had an impact.

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Telangana has less rural and more urban voters than the rest of India - the 29th state of the country has a 39% urban population as compared to the 30% across India.

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There are eight bellwether seats to watch out for. Andole has always voted the same party that's won the state in the last 30 years.

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Will the TRS retain power in Telangana? Here's what opinion polls suggest on who will cross the hallway mark of 60.

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The results will be declared on December 7, along with that of four other states.

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Key seats to watch out in Telangana Elections to predict winner:

Andhole(SC) & Narsapur - Medak District

Bodhan - Nizamabad District

Suryapeta - Nalgonda District

Shadnagar - MahbubNagar District

Manthani - KarimNagar District

Janagaon & Warangal East - Warangal District

 

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Poll of Polls:

TRS - 66

Peoples Front - 39

MIM - 7

BJP - 4

 

Very difficult to beat 10-20% difference in short span though most opposition parties come together. Unanimously everyone saying TRS may just win.

Pranoy Roy - Small swing in favor/away can change things nothing is ruled out.

 

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15 minutes ago, RKumar said:

Key seats to watch out in Telangana Elections to predict winner:

Andhole(SC) & Narsapur - Medak District

Bodhan - Nizamabad District

Suryapeta - Nalgonda District

Shadnagar - MahbubNagar District

Manthani - KarimNagar District

Janagaon & Warangal East - Warangal District

 

Andhole lo intaku mundu wave undatam valla babu Mohan win ayyadu but ippudu trs ku antha scene ledu...trs candidate worst akkada...daamodara raajanarsimha ke chances ekkuva

Jangaon trs candidate muthi reddy meeda anti undi so ponnala ku line clear ayinatte

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Thing i found wrong in NDTV Analysis Reddys will vote mostly for TRS. It's impossible in both rural/city.

It's Reddy community which is instrumental in forming this alliance (Peoples Front) which NDTV analysts missed.

SC/STs & Reddys - Major sections voting for Congress

Velamas & BCs - Voting majorly for TRS.

Muslims & Other Settlers - Split between Peoples Front & TRS. - Anyone gets edge here might pull out. 

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2 minutes ago, hydking said:

Andhole lo intaku mundu wave undatam valla babu Mohan win ayyadu but ippudu trs ku antha scene ledu...trs candidate worst akkada...daamodara raajanarsimha ke chances ekkuva

Jangaon trs candidate muthi reddy meeda anti undi so ponnala ku line clear ayinatte

What NDTV meant these are clear swing seats, gives indication who is winning.

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Just now, Mallina said:

Asalu fight loki techinde idi ga... Lekapothe kcr one side undunu.. 

What they meant CBN in defensive mode saying i am not against Telangana, not stopped projects/water. Instead of offensive he is very defensive that doesn't give so much boost to cadre to come back to TDP.

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3 minutes ago, RKumar said:

What they meant CBN in defensive mode saying i am not against Telangana, not stopped projects/water. Instead of offensive he is very defensive that doesn't give so much boost to cadre to come back to TDP.

September lo unnatu one side ga kcr ki unna e gola undakapodunu.. E tight fight tensions endo ?

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Oka analyst (may be robo, with no connection to public in present) when thrown data (2014) at him then this is (programmed) output.. 

all these high tech Jurno/analysts (so called) just play with numbers and make money out of TRASH.

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