krish2015 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Political Stock Exchange: BJP headed for a beating in Rajasthan, close fight in MP, Chhattisgarh The assembly elections are being seen as a semi-final match before 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP faces a neck-and-neck contest in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and a debacle in Rajasthan in the upcoming Assembly elections, according to the Political Stock Exchange. In Telangana, chief minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao looks set to sweep the December 7 state poll, with 75 per cent voters found to be backing his Telangana Rashtra Samithi. In what could be a closely-fought election, the BJP reserves a 52 per cent chance to retain power in Madhya Pradesh, the PSE data show. In neighbouring Chhattisgarh, chief minister Raman Singh stands a 55 per cent probability to win a majority again, but his Rajasthan counterpart Vasundhara Raje confronts a sticky wicket in her bid for another term, with only 35 per cent of stakes showing up in her favour, the survey revealed. Psephologist Rajeeva Laxman Karandikar described this probability analysis as a perception survey based on a number factors derived from the PSE study. The factors, he said, include the popularity of the government, the number of parties in the fray and break-up of public perception on various parameters. "In that sense, it is quite different from standard opinion polls," the psephologist explained. MADHYA PRADESH The vote-share gap between the incumbent BJP and its rival Congress is expected to swing between one and three per cent. According to the PSE, the saffron party wins seats with big margins in urban pockets whereas the difference in villages is narrow. A pre-poll alliance between the Congress and the BSP -- which didn't work out -- would have had a much higher chance of victory, the data suggested. Mayawati's party is tipped to poll around 6 per cent votes in Madhya Pradesh. The survey showed the Congress would have gained by declaring former Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia as its chief ministerial candidate. Scindia enjoys high popularity among young voters. What appears to be going in favour of the BJP is a fractured Opposition in the November 28 state Assembly election, the PSE observed. The BJP's fortunes hang precariously to a discomforting lead of two per cent over the opposition. According to the survey findings, 42 per cent of the respondents backed the present Shivraj Singh Chouhan government for another term while 40 per cent sought a change. According to psephologist Yogendra Yadav the political situation was indeed delicate for the incumbents. "I looked at a similar survey done five years ago in Madhya Pradesh. In 2013, 53 per cent said Shivraj Singh (Chouhan) should get another chance while 20 per cent said 'no'," he recalled. "That 53:20 ratio has now become 42:40. On the popularity chart five years ago, Shivraj Chouhan's score was 44 and that of all Congress leaders put together was only 21. Today, he is 44 but Congress leaders together are 39. The situation is very precarious," Yadav said. Unemployment followed by farm-related problems, price rise and drinking water have emerged as major issues for the state, according to the PSE survey based on telephonic interviews across 29 parliamentary constituencies, with a sample size of 11,712. RAJASTHAN In Rajasthan, the Congress seemed to be in a comfortable position for a victory over the Raje government. Party leader Ashok Gehlot is the top choice for the CM post. What goes against the BJP in the state is a wave of anger among the low-caste and Muslim communities, the survey showed. The saffron party is also losing ground in its traditional strongholds in urban pockets. The poll found a very strong anti-incumbency against the Raje government but Narendra Modi remains the popular choice as PM. At the state level, election equations could have changed with a change in the BJP's CM face, the poll suggested. For both the BJP and the Congress, the likely voter share gap appears to be between three and five per cent. Psephologist Yogendra Yadav agreed with the findings of the PSE survey in Rajasthan but said the margins between victory and defeat could be much bigger. "Our experience shows that when people, who say this government should go in a poll prior to elections are more than those who want to retain it, the government usually goes. If anyone trumps the existing chief minister in popularity, chances are they (the incumbents) are going," Yadav remarked. He, however, sought to make a distinction: the BJP is going to "lose big" in Rajasthan but "not" because of the rivals' merits. "I do not see why we should see this as a sweep for the Congress because the Congress hasn't done very much in the state, but the BJP is clearly losing it and they are losing it big. I would not be surprised if the actual results are much bigger than what you show here," Yadav contended. BJP leader Amit Malviya disagreed with the suggestions that a change in the CM candidate could have favoured the party. "We are going to fight this election under the leadership of Vasundhara Raje and we have declared that. Coming to what the organization is going to do, I can tell you that organizationally we have build a formidable machinery," he argued. The organization, according to Malviya, has thrown its full weight behind Raje. Unemployment, sanitation, agrarian problems, drinking water and price rise are the top concerns for Rajasthan voters, said the survey conducted 25 parliamentary constituencies via telephone interviews, with a sample size of 10,136. CHHATTISGARH In Chhattisgarh, the alliance between Ajit Jogi's Janta Congress Chhattisgarh and the BSP seems to be helping the BJP in the state elections, the survey indicated. The tie-up is likely to bag seven per cent vote. With Opposition votes getting split, the vote-share gap among the major political parties remain narrow. CM Raman Singh's smartphone distribution scheme is paying dividends to his party, but not in the Naxal-hit Bastar region, where the BJP remains unpopular, the poll showed. Overall, the chief minister tops the popularity chart even after three terms in office. State Congress leader Bhupesh Baghel and Jogi trail the CM. Unemployment has been found to be the key issue for the state voters, according to the poll conducted in 11 Lok Sabha constituencies, with a sample size of 4,486. TELANGANA What's helping KCR in the state is a strong pro-incumbency wave, the poll showed. The chief minister has been found to be leading among all segments of population. Besides, the CM's social-welfare schemes are serving as a bonus for KCR. The early dissolution of the state Assembly to advance elections has emerged as a masterstroke by the chief minister. The recent Congress-TDP alliance, however, doesn't seem to be delivering results, the survey suggested. Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM seems to be marring Congress fortunes in Hyderabad area. The Telangana PSE survey was conducted across 17 parliamentary constituencies via telephonic interviews, with a sample size of 6,877. Get re Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnnaGaru Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 eedu 2014 lo ycheepe 20 seats+ ichadu.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinayak Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 42 minutes ago, AnnaGaru said: eedu 2014 lo ycheepe 20 seats+ ichadu.. anni chotla negative undani national media dwara pump kotti lepudam ani trying anteeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sskmaestro Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 75% voters favoring ah? Endira idhi..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nfan from 1982 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Let’s see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinayak Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RKumar Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Kishan Reddy ki 16% aa. KR CM ante vaalla intlo vaalle nammaru, thane sonthamga nammdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaswanth526 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonykongara Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 C-Voter November (week 2) poll projects a clear majority of 64 seats to the Congress-TDP combine in #Telangana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonykongara Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 1st survey by CVoter for Telangana TRS:42 Cong+:64 BJP:4 Oth:9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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