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కర్ణాటక ఎన్నికలపై మహాన్యూస్ ఆధ్వర్యంలో సర్వే | IVR Analysis | Mahaa Ne


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Until April 2nd week, congress easy win anipinchindi/annaaru.

 

After that..BJP is gaining....seems to be either true or just media management without any ground-level change.

 

Most crucial thing:

 

BJP-JD (S) may move their vote banks strategically. If they succeed, Congress may siuffer serious set back.

 

Only problem with this survey: if JD (S) touches 40 seats, it will be a miracle for Congress to get that many seats. Most of seats JD (S) will gain are at expense of Congress.

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2 minutes ago, nvkrishna said:

Until April 2nd week, congress easy win anipinchindi/annaaru.

 

After that..BJP is gaining....seems to be either true or just media management without any ground-level change.

 

Most crucial thing:

 

BJP-JD (S) may move their vote banks strategically. If they succeed, Congress may siuffer serious set back.

Bro how come congress gets 110-115 seats with 36% votes 

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23 minutes ago, sskmaestro said:

Simple question : after demonetization do you really think middle class will rally behind Modi ? (Just like they did in 2004) 

Middle class enti bro..ATM mundara nilabadda okkadu kooda veediki vote veyyadu..something strange..I am still wondering how and why people are voting for this stupid.. 

Asalu veedu ee sector ni satisfy cheyyala..anni saantham naakipoyayi...very strange situation for India..

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57 minutes ago, niceguy said:

Idhi choosi shocked ? Hope it is cooked..KA kooda 100+ vasthe inka god save India anukovali emo..

Some Election Bhagavadgita

 

Karnataka lo BJP gelichina/vodina....no impact on 2019 Modi election except for some short-term psychological boost for winning party.

 

Only problem for Congress:

Gujarat - congress should win but BJP won

Karnataka - congress easy win but now BJP is gaining

 

That is telling that how Good BJP is in poll management

 

But, go back to 2003-04

 

November, 2003: BJP sweep in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh

 

February, 2004: NDA cleansweep - India Today survey (predicted 330-340 seats) - https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/india/mood-of-the-nation/story/20040209-vajpayee-bjp-set-for-landslide-win-in-forthcoming-2004-elections-790960-1999-11-30

 

Vajpayee went to early polls - OUT

vajpayee.jpg

 

 

Time-pass discos ki thappithe...no use. Each election is unique. 2019 is more about strategic poll alliances & what Modi will do in next 12 months.

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18 minutes ago, nvkrishna said:

Some Election Bhagavadgita

 

Karnataka lo BJP gelichina/vodina....no impact on 2019 Modi election except for some short-term psychological boost for winning party.

 

Only problem for Congress:

Gujarat - congress should win but BJP won

Karnataka - congress easy win but now BJP is gaining

 

That is telling that how Good BJP is in poll management

 

But, go back to 2003-04

 

November, 2003: BJP sweep in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh

 

February, 2004: NDA cleansweep - India Today survey (predicted 330-340 seats) - https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/india/mood-of-the-nation/story/20040209-vajpayee-bjp-set-for-landslide-win-in-forthcoming-2004-elections-790960-1999-11-30

 

Vajpayee went to early polls - OUT

vajpayee.jpg

 

 

Time-pass discos ki thappithe...no use. Each election is unique. 2019 is more about strategic poll alliances & what Modi will do in next 12 months.

Entha poll management ayina asalu ee B000di gaadiki emi choosi votes vesthunnaru..worst central govt ruling till date..

2004 congress vs 2019 congress chaala diff vundhi..idhe trend continue ayithe kastam..

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17 minutes ago, niceguy said:

Entha poll management ayina asalu ee B000di gaadiki emi choosi votes vesthunnaru..worst central govt ruling till date..

2004 congress vs 2019 congress chaala diff vundhi..idhe trend continue ayithe kastam..

In 2004, only 2 states changed everything (AP & TN)

 

Even if Modi provides best possible governance, still, BJP may not win more than 10-15 seats if BSP-SP-Congress contests united in 2019 in Uttar Pradesh.

If Sonia once again succeeds in forming good alliances, it is end of Modi in 2019.

 

Some examples: CBN supporting Congress at center. Congress/UPA revival in TN & Telangana. Nitish going back to past alliance. mamatha-congress aliance

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19 minutes ago, nvkrishna said:

In 2004, only 2 states changed everything (AP & TN)

 

Even if Modi provides best possible governance, still, BJP may not win more than 10-15 seats if BSP-SP-Congress contests united in 2019 in Uttar Pradesh.

If Sonia once again succeeds in forming good alliances, it is end of Modi in 2019.

 

Some examples: CBN supporting Congress at center. Congress/UPA revival in TN & Telangana. Nitish going back to past alliance. mamatha-congress aliance

Local parties are going to Kill Modi in 2019. Slowly BJP will go back where it started. (Attarintiki daaredi lo Brahmi laaga) 

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Uppudu Modi vs Siddh matrame............so 12 kakapothe 18 peeteing lu petti, 18 union ministers ni tholi susu posukuntunadu. Most important factor is that every single % gain, they are counting on modi. 

 

2019 lo Modi vs Siddh,CBN, Stalin,Mamata, kejriwal, akhilesh,mayawati..................etc. Intha campaigning and management is impossible. Now he is targetiing Rahul,nothing else and he is a very easy target too . But in 2019 he has to face stalwarts in thei rown region/might. How can he counter CBN, mamata etc? Vaadiki per state at the max 2 days time untadhi. Opposition ki 30 days time untadhi.

 

Last and most imp point. UP lo SP & BSP kalisi contest chesthe, modi garu sabarmathi teeram lo palli lu ammukuntu batikeyochu ( amit shah gaadini yetu day 1 moosestaaru loya case lo). 

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BJP poll management seems playing a crucial role....last 2 elections nunchi antunna...results are very different from the trend....but cadre unna congress manage cheyalekapothundi antey....inka evadi valla kaadu....just separate rss from modi?....gadhkari ki earth pettali modi...and rss reverse avali...ani day dreams seyali inka anthey

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UP lo last time 73 vacchayi...........uppudu SP & BSP kalisi contest chesthe 10 to 15 at the max. Loss of 60 seats which they can never cover up in other states. Modi mania peak lo unappude 200 vacchayi. Even by very very optimistic count oka 30 dent padataayi. 30 plus 60 = 90 seta vere chotle gain avvali. 

Alliance lu tappithe gati ledhu. When it comes to alliance, congress is far better in respecting partners unlike modi who is harassing and their main motto is to crush regional parties

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15 minutes ago, phani2 said:

UP lo last time 73 vacchayi...........uppudu SP & BSP kalisi contest chesthe 10 to 15 at the max. Loss of 60 seats which they can never cover up in other states. Modi mania peak lo unappude 200 vacchayi. Even by very very optimistic count oka 30 dent padataayi. 30 plus 60 = 90 seta vere chotle gain avvali. 

Alliance lu tappithe gati ledhu. When it comes to alliance, congress is far better in respecting partners unlike modi who is harassing and their main motto is to crush regional parties

UP lo minimum 30+ tagguthaayo SP & BSP seperate ga contest chesina due to anti on present MPs, impossible to repeat same performance even if opposition vote is divided.

RJ, GUJ, MP lo easy 20-30 seats tagguthaayi minimum.

Bihar, MH lo kooda taggadame kaane peragadaaniki scope ledu. Like wise many north states BJP won 90% of MP seats will loose minimum 30-40% seats.

North India lo BJP will loose 80-100 seats MP seats overall. No Indian state except Orissa which gives BJP 5+ seats that too if BJD looses state election otherwise akkada kooda same performance repeat avvochhu.

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