Latest update on summer Cyclone
Things are panning out as executed a way back...let's come to 1st pre-monsoon summer cyclone, which taking off by Mid-May and 3-4 days earlier what said before. This 1st BOB summer cyclone will be turning a monster (minimum cat.3 or above) under favourable MJO, dead-neutral IOD & decaying Elnino conditions. Regarding track, as it looks like now moving towards Orissa but most of the weathermen are pretty sure it won't move beyond AP latitude if MJO stick to phases 2&3 during peak time (mostly going to happen) with Nino 3.4 SSTA falling below +0.5 range by that time (mostly going to happen). Overall there is pretty decent chance for NTN/SAP-CAP to witness strong rains and winds from this 1st summer BOB low-latitude moving cyclone that going to happen after 2010-Laila. This cyclone in the mean time triggering SWM onset over Andaman Islands and trigger powerful Somali current over Arabian Sea....regarding 2nd system around May 4th week, which may also turn minimum DD or tropical storm will have perfect SWM features and going to be genesis around East-central & adjoining NE-BOB along SWM axis, which will move along SWM axis towards Bangla/WB/Orissa belt. Overall it looks Indian sub-continent going to witness high amplitude SWM onset current in recent past.